Why only less than 2% of pokerplayers make a living playing poker???

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Pekelo, Apr 9, 2011.

  1. Pekelo


    Yes, why oh why???

    I figured I would start this thread for emg....

    Could it be that anyone can declare him/herself a poker pro, with minimal of capital, no serious experience necessery? Thus the answer is interestingly the same as for trading:

    1. Very easy to start. No experience is necessary, well, you do have to know the rules of poker.
    2. Very little starting capital is needed. Of course, bigger your account, longer you last.
    3. Psychological aspects of playing. Playing on tilt....Averaging down...etc...
    4. Lack of consistent approach or a clear plan, winning strategy.
    5-10. blah-blah-blah. etc.etc.etc...

    Basicly ANY business where the entry is very easy (little capital, no experience) will have a huge failure rate, period. So can we stop asking the same question over and over again????

    P.S.: I pulled the 2% out of my ass, but it is probably way less....
  2. Poker is a zero sum game of luck setup so that the winners are very few. The same is true for lottery games. It is nearly impossible to make a living from lottery because the game is setup that way.

    Trading is different, no relation to poker and lottery. In trading value comes from information processing and forecasting. You and I cannot compete with large research departments of hedge funds, insiders and manipulators.

    Capital has nothing to do with that. Hookers start with 0 down and make a comfortable living, at least quite a few of them. The issue there is demand. There is always demand for them.

    So you have different games based on their rules:

    1. Lottery: setup so that few win
    2. Poker: game of luck and setup so that few win
    3. Trading: information processing game
  3. Pekelo


    Man, you are so wrong on so many points....

    1. Trading is a zero sum game too, or even a negative return counting commission and taxes. No difference from poker.
    2. Poker is still a game of SKILL in the long run, otherwise you wouldn't have the SAME pros earning a living year after year.
    3. Lottery is a completely bad comparison.
    4. Just because there is one #1 in a competition, still lots of players end up with prize money or in the money. You don't have to be always #1 to be a pro.
    5. Retail traders also can make a living, competing with HFs or not. Yours is irrelevant and wrong opinion.
    6. Capital has everything to do with it. When you have to worry about monthly withdrawals, that effects your approach. Also it is much easier to make 50K with a million dollar account than with a 50 K account. DUH.
    7. Most hookers have quite a lots of expenses, like fake breasts, hairdo, clothes, protection, gym. You might mean the $40 BJ hookers.
    8. Poker is actually a negative sum game because of the house's cut....Same with trading...
    9. Poker has no information gathering?? Only if you play online...Otherwise it is all about playing your opponents and you can READ them...
  4. blnbr


    "1. Trading is a zero sum game too, or even a negative return counting commission and taxes. No difference from poker."

    Plus the factors of price manipulation, insider trading, etc.
  5. Completely wrong.

    Both poker and trading are games of making hard decisions based on imperfect information.

    Both have multiple 'styles' that can be used to become profitable, despite being very different to each other.

    Both have the same steep psychological learning curve when it comes to applying an edge.
  6. Handle123


    I totally agree, before I became full time trader, all my weekends I was in Vegas making money playing Blackjack.

    1. Have to have a well tested plan.
    2. Must have disipline.
    3. Maintain strict Money management rules.

    The only reason I stopped playing was I didn't want to move there and trading offered a bigger edge. I still have friends who play all kinds of games in Vegas, they don't have losing years, you learn a method that works, and hope the boredom don't become too great.

    Then you go into teaching till you get tired of explaining the same concept four hundred times, LOL "How much do I risk?" grrrr
  7. It takes 98% of poker players to support 2% of poker players to make a living; otherwise where would money come from?
  8. You seem to be speaking too "knowledgeably" about that. Were you ever a pimp? :confused:
  9. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    I would suggest that in NL poker, the problem comes to luck. You can play the best hand and still lose if for example another player gets lucky on the river.

    However, if you are a pro over time your skill level will provide you with an edge. For example, your skill level could be reading the other player's tells and bet patterns. Or you could be patient in limit poker and wait for decent cards like you wait for a good setup in trading.

    I would say in swing trading stocks over the longer term you may be looking for other factors than just TA, for example, say I am long NEOP which I got in at a much lower price. I know that the drug they are waiting for approval is both safe and it works, plus I was able to sell over 1/2 my shares at a profit reducing my risk on this trade, while waiting for FDA approval. TA I might use on this stock are just fibs in that I may buy back on a 50% pullback or sell some on a 100% rise in price, but I can ignore daily signals.

    Short term futures, I may need to determine is the market currently in this hour of time trending down, trending up, or trading in a range. Then I need to look at what indicators may confirm what I see on the chart. Then I may need to wait for a setup with a target and a stop to allow me to profit from my insight. I need to be able to not go on tilt if I am wrong.
  10. Poker and Trading are pretty much the same with a few differences. Poker involves an exponentially greater decision making ability and endurance than trading does.

    A trader can make 2-3 decisions a day, a week, a month, a year and still be relatively profitable.

    A poker player has to make hundreds and thousands of decisions over the course of the weeks and months in order to be relatively profitable.

    Both games benefit from pattern recognition and situational recognition
    Both games benefit from sound money management
    Both games have an element of luck (poker more so than trading)
    Both games require sufficient bankroll to have a reasonable chance at success
    Both games require (generally speaking) intense emotional control

    The biggest differences I see:
    In poker, while you are all-in you cannot take it back, in trading you can.
    In poker, a lot of your success relies heavily on the skill level of your opponent. Trading your biggest opponent is really yourself.
    Poker has a limited lucrative level, Trading is essentially unlimited. (Nobody is going to become a billionaire from playing poker exclusively).
    Required decision making aptitude is much higher in Poker than in trading.

    And, yes, Poker does involve an insane amount of skill. It is not coincidence you see the same poker pros at the final table 99% of the time.
    #10     Apr 10, 2011