yes to all this. no to top and bottom picking. I may get involved heavily at these levels but by accident (well, not really accident), not by design. tntneo
"However, the thing which works all the time is to go against the trend. That's what specialists and market makers do, and they always make money (in the long run). " Tntneo, you have my respect forever for saying this. I just want to add up that you can use this strategy to go with the trend too (you do not need to call it going against the trend, you can get an edge by waiting for the bounce.) Given a time frame, there is nothing beyond the Bell Curve. (Not a Holy Grail, only a small advantage.) Everything else is bullshit.IMO
tntneo, thank you for the info. Do you ever get buried? How often? Do you hedge? This fascinates me. cesko, what, exactly, do you mean by nothing beyond the Bell Curve?
and if you happen to pick a top or bottom, you must by definition leave most of it on the table, right?
thanks cesko. I fully agree with you. I was being provocative too since we always hear 'the trend is your friend' etc.. specialists do enjoy trends too, they just enjoy them very differently than other traders. I know I do. it is a bit counter intuitive and hard to understand in the beginning, when you are used to trend following and momo. it's my understanding than most of the time they try to round up their positions each day (remember I am not a specialist, so I can only guess from what I read). however, I think it's bullshit. there are much better ways to manage this, so I doubt they do it. I doubt they are pure daytraders. It does not matter. They make money. I make money. it's fine. tntneo
not necessarly. it's all a matter of time frame. Obviously I don't enjoy a 3 months bottom, it's a too big time frame. But short term bottoms, of course (I know short term is vague here, but it relates to the time frame I trade). Usually I enjoy a trend when I picked a bottom. Just the same way I suspect the specialist does. back to the open. It's not playing specialist surrogate. it is a game you play with the specialist, that's not the same. However, it's an example of what works. tntneo
intraday is the most important. but thinking that whatever happens intraday, happens in a vaccum, regardless of the previous day(s) and short term trends is foolish. I never force myself within the limits of intraday. the surrogate specialist game is more subtle than that. good for you if you give it a try. tntneo
I rarely get buried and actually it should never happen to me. But, sadly, I am only human and I make mistakes, so from time to time it happens. I would say it is very very rare though. maybe once a quarter or something. And obviously I am talking about one stock going bad, not my portfolio. I don't hedge on a position basis. However, I do hedge my entire operations by trading the total market (with index trading). Multiple systems, non correlated do keep my results under strict risk control, limiting equity curve volatility. It seems a must. we could be hit any day by a violent market event, possibly against us. So either you are a pure day trader, or one need hedging of some sort. I already wrote that I don't force myself to be flat each day. tntneo