Why not share your winning strategy?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by capamando, Feb 18, 2006.

  1. At the very least, nobody can say that you are a slow learner.
    :D
     
    #41     Feb 19, 2006
  2. Don't even try to reverse-engineer mine or I will have to kill you :)


    secret winning formulas
     
    #42     Feb 19, 2006
  3. stocon

    stocon

    Find a trend and buy a flag BO
    Find some chops and sell two tops or buy two bottoms

    I hope she's attractive:D



    andw

    emkr

    holx my fav
     
    #43     Feb 19, 2006
  4. I don't agree that it is a zero sums game. Stocks certainly aren't because corporations make a profit and then pay them out in dividends. Commodities and currencies are closer to a zero sums game but you have hedgers who are most likely net losers using them as issuance.
     
    #44     Feb 19, 2006
  5. bitrend

    bitrend

    Yes, it's a zero-sum game. It couldn't be a zero-sum game with one condition if the total dividends that corporate pays back or buy the shares back exceed the IPO value. How many successful companies, like Microsoft, IBM, Google and so on are able to do that. Here we're not considering an unsuccessful companies, there are many, if we consider them as well we see clearly that it's a zero-sum since they never able to give money back to their investors. Those moneys are just moving from one trader to another trader.
     
    #45     Feb 19, 2006

  6. Very simple. Lets say you have a winning strategy. You pass it on to 3 people. they pass it on to 3 people, who also pass it on to 3 people etc. Technical indicators become self fulfilling prophecies. traders take advantage by making the currency hit trigger points, strategy becomes less profitable while more traders trade wining strategy. strategy eventually becomes unprofitable for all. strategies life cycle becomes seriously diminished. This happens so quickly that the trader who created the original strategy cannot adapt. the result, a 3 year investment of ones time only pays off for a year instead of the rest of ones life.

    In short, it is very easy to look at bill gates and say "If I had that much money, I would share it with someone like me" But until you actually have it, nobody will believe you.

    If you're just starting out, I would suggest asking other new traders to work with you and share ideas, instead of asking more seasoned traders to work for you for free. And maybe when you've paid your dues and have something of value, they'll be kicking themselves for not taking you up on your offer sooner.

    88888s
     
    #46     Feb 19, 2006
  7. You don't think Microsoft has paid back more dividends than money it raised in its IPO? Anyone who thinks the stock market is a zero sums game shouldn't be trading. In 2004 Microsoft paid a $32.6 billion one-time dividend, the S&P 500 paid a total of $213.6 billion in dividends during 2004.
     
    #47     Feb 19, 2006
  8. Deptrai

    Deptrai

    Capamando, I wasn't joking about using the force. Hopefully, someday you will know what I am talking about. Welcome to forex. 99% of all forex traders will eventually fail. May the force be with you. :)
     
    #48     Feb 20, 2006
  9. bitrend

    bitrend

    I guess your main priority is not about dividends it's about price appreciation. Are you concentrating to trade uniquely on the companies in S&P500 or on other thousand companies outside S&P500 that couldn't pay dividends?
     
    #49     Feb 20, 2006
  10. gbos

    gbos

    I think the ET community had many times in the past this discussion. My view is this:

    If you take the whole market as one entity and you add some time lag, the stock market game is very close to a zero sum game.

    First of all the stock market as a whole grows no more than 4 – 5% a year on average (that is if you are lucky enough to invest in a growing economy like the US stock market in the past century).

    If you compensate for inflation – transaction costs – companies that closed etc. the real growth is even less.

    So for the average participant in a stock market, the only way to achieve a return more than this is to take a bigger part of this limited pie in the expense and by outsmarting another investor.

    There will be times that temporarily many will have above average profits and the market will give the impression that it is not a zero sum game but this is only temporarily. The market has a memory (time lag) and it will rebalance these profits making in the long run the game very close to a zero sum one.

    Some that follows the strict academic definition of the zero sum game will disagree with the above.
     
    #50     Feb 20, 2006