Why most traders are losers

ByLoSellHi · May 1, 2009

If you're using the Doji, make sure it's the Yunus version:

<object style='width:470px;height:406px;' width='470' height='406' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' data='http://www.myvideo.de/movie/2119588'><param name='movie' value='http://www.myvideo.de/movie/2119588'></param><param name='AllowFullscreen' value='true'></param><param name='AllowScriptAccess' value='always'></param><embed src='http://www.myvideo.de/movie/2119588' width='470' height='406'></embed></object><br/><a href='http://www.myvideo.de/watch/2119588/yunus_doji' title='yunus doji - MyVideo'>yunus doji - MyVideo</a>

Dustin · May 1, 2009

Quote from tomsmith:

3. High probability opportunities are few and far between, limit yourself to no more than
a couple trades per year.
More...

There are high probability trades almost every minute of every day if you know where to look. That's the difference between traders and investors.

saliva · May 1, 2009

Quote from tomsmith:

Iâve looked at this forum over the years but have never bothered posting before. But after reading the nonsense on a recent thread about why 90% or more of traders are losers decided I would. To the original poster of that thread- if you listen to any of these people you will be one of the 90% losers. Trading is EASY, these people work their butts off to make it as hard as possible. Spending hours looking at spreadsheets and charts to see if a fast thingamadickie has crossed a slow watchyamacallit, or if the stock has hit a point it retraced to 8 years ago and other nonsense. Here is how you can be successful trading:

1. Understand trading is gambling. If you donât want to risk your money donât trade.
2. Only gamble your money when there is a HIGH probability of success.
3. High probability opportunities are few and far between, limit yourself to no more than
a couple trades per year.

Here is what I have traded over my 6 year career:

Took $50,000 from my IRA and it put into a trading account. Watched the market start to come off itâs bottom in 2003 AND WAITED for a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.

1st trade- Day after Memorial weekend Iâm watching the screen at the open and the QQQâs go from red to green within minutes and start to run up (.20 to .25 to .30 on the bid on SP 29 calls Iâm watching) . No, I donât know if the Qâs have a flaming doji or an inverted hammer coming out of their arse on the stock charts or not, but I know that if the price is going up that fast there is a HIGH PROBABILITY I can make money buying. I buy 1000 of the near month 29 strike price calls for .30 and immediately pull up an order to sell 10,000 Qâs at market if the trade suddenly turns and I want to make money on the drop. Well the Qâs run all that week and Mon-Thurs of the next week and I cash out with the calls at $275+ and over $250,000 profit.

2nd trade- Unlike most traders, Iâm in no rush to give my money back so I look and wait awhile before risking any of that $250,000. Looking through the WSJ one day I notice that 2 new companies have been added to the Nasdaq, one of them is Taser. I figure being added to the listing is going to raise the price of the stock so I take a look at it, like what I see, and risk about 15% of my now $300,000+ war chest and buy 1500 shares of the stock at the open in the low $30âs since it doesnât have options yet to buy. Taser runs up to $127 before falling down and I get out at $108. I clear over $100,000.

3rd trade-Some people are winners, some are losers. I think people like Steve Jobs and Martha Stewart are winners. I thought that when she was dealing with the Feds before going into the pokey and the stock was down to $8, that she would be a winner again. I put my money where my mouth was and bought 1000 of the $10 strike price LEAPS for the next year at $50 each. I sold them with MSO in the high $20âs and I made $2725/ contract, 1000 contracts. Do the math on that .The stock went up further to the mid 30âs in Feb before turning, but Iâm not a pig and was happy with what I made.

So, my point is that you can slave like a fool looking for the holy grail of charts and systems that will allow you to sit glued to your screen day in and day out hoping to grab a few points here and there, playing the game that is stacked against you from the start, or you can learn to read the market and use your head to reach in and take out in enough quantity to make it worth your while. It mainly just requires patience and intelligent thought. Donât let these âprosâ discourage you.
More...

Another bullshit to the n-th power. Just like every "loser" you mention, you say all this rubbish in hindsight. Sure, I also went long exactlt when the market hit the bottom in 2003 and rode it all the way to the top in 2007.

Gimme a fucking break! Instead of lecturing worthless crap that nobody can use, start posting some trades in real time. You can then give your piecemeal reasons why you entered the trade.

eagle · May 1, 2009

I'm not smart to understand. You've got such superior patient for knowing and reading this site for long time and had resisted to register until recently.

Quote from tomsmith:

Iâve looked at this forum over the years but have never bothered posting before. But after reading the nonsense on a recent thread about why 90% or more of traders are losers decided I would.
More...

ivanbaj · May 1, 2009

To evaluate all this, I need to know what was your stop loss in these 3 trades. Also I need to know if you ever had a loosing trade and the size of it.

So far you are demonstrating 100% success rate. If you do think you have 100% success rate you should invest 100% of your net worth on your next trade. If you do not do that you need to explain why not?

Quote from tomsmith:

Iâve looked at this forum over the years but have never bothered posting before. But after reading the nonsense on a recent thread about why 90% or more of traders are losers decided I would. To the original poster of that thread- if you listen to any of these people you will be one of the 90% losers. Trading is EASY, these people work their butts off to make it as hard as possible. Spending hours looking at spreadsheets and charts to see if a fast thingamadickie has crossed a slow watchyamacallit, or if the stock has hit a point it retraced to 8 years ago and other nonsense. Here is how you can be successful trading:

1. Understand trading is gambling. If you donât want to risk your money donât trade.
2. Only gamble your money when there is a HIGH probability of success.
3. High probability opportunities are few and far between, limit yourself to no more than
a couple trades per year.

Here is what I have traded over my 6 year career:

Took $50,000 from my IRA and it put into a trading account. Watched the market start to come off itâs bottom in 2003 AND WAITED for a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.

1st trade- Day after Memorial weekend Iâm watching the screen at the open and the QQQâs go from red to green within minutes and start to run up (.20 to .25 to .30 on the bid on SP 29 calls Iâm watching) . No, I donât know if the Qâs have a flaming doji or an inverted hammer coming out of their arse on the stock charts or not, but I know that if the price is going up that fast there is a HIGH PROBABILITY I can make money buying. I buy 1000 of the near month 29 strike price calls for .30 and immediately pull up an order to sell 10,000 Qâs at market if the trade suddenly turns and I want to make money on the drop. Well the Qâs run all that week and Mon-Thurs of the next week and I cash out with the calls at $275+ and over $250,000 profit.

2nd trade- Unlike most traders, Iâm in no rush to give my money back so I look and wait awhile before risking any of that $250,000. Looking through the WSJ one day I notice that 2 new companies have been added to the Nasdaq, one of them is Taser. I figure being added to the listing is going to raise the price of the stock so I take a look at it, like what I see, and risk about 15% of my now $300,000+ war chest and buy 1500 shares of the stock at the open in the low $30âs since it doesnât have options yet to buy. Taser runs up to $127 before falling down and I get out at $108. I clear over $100,000.

3rd trade-Some people are winners, some are losers. I think people like Steve Jobs and Martha Stewart are winners. I thought that when she was dealing with the Feds before going into the pokey and the stock was down to $8, that she would be a winner again. I put my money where my mouth was and bought 1000 of the $10 strike price LEAPS for the next year at $50 each. I sold them with MSO in the high $20âs and I made $2725/ contract, 1000 contracts. Do the math on that .The stock went up further to the mid 30âs in Feb before turning, but Iâm not a pig and was happy with what I made.

So, my point is that you can slave like a fool looking for the holy grail of charts and systems that will allow you to sit glued to your screen day in and day out hoping to grab a few points here and there, playing the game that is stacked against you from the start, or you can learn to read the market and use your head to reach in and take out in enough quantity to make it worth your while. It mainly just requires patience and intelligent thought. Donât let these âprosâ discourage you.
More...

ivanbaj · May 1, 2009

Quote from heech:

For every 100 monkeys who randomly made buy/sell decisions on those 3 trades, 12 monkeys would have come up with the OP's results.

For every 100 monkeys who take $50k to Las Vegas and bet it all on black (three times), statistically speaking 12 of these monkeys will walk away with $400k.

11 of them would later post on EliteTrader about their love for bananas, and 5 of them would assert roulette is easy.
More...

ivanbaj · May 1, 2009

He will not recognize VARIANCE if it sits in his lap and calls him daddy.

Quote from Vespasian:

I could not help myself because this is the funniest thread I've read on ET ever.

Look up the word VARIANCE.

You are not a trader - you are just in a lucky streak and your next 6 trades could easily wipe you back to nothing.

Just because all you play is AA and KK won't make you a profitable trader in the long run, sorry!
More...

ivanbaj · May 1, 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locus_of_control#Self-efficacy

saliva · May 1, 2009

Where do all these senile idiots that masturbate to their own self-glory come from? This is becoming a pandemic of epic proportion.

dirkd · May 1, 2009

trading is a mental sport. That is why most traders lose. Fear and Greed. Plain and simple. control your emotions and you will do fine. thats great that you made such few trades and made so much $$$. i wish i did. But the reality is that what you are looking for as a trader is a high probability trade with excellent risk management.