MCain will win If it were such a slam dunk for obama why does intrade prediction market show a 37% probability of a McCain victory?
I may be wrong about this, but wouldn't a spread of 63/37 in a presidential election be just about an all-time, landslide margin?
The funny thing is I keep hearing this from Republican elites, who are about as far from being ordinary Americans as you can get. AAA you're not fooling anyone. There's no gun rack in your pickup truck. There are plenty of rednecks, racists and idiots who hate Obama, and I don't think he likes them either. If that makes him an "elitist" who has contempt for "ordinary Americans," so much the better. He knows that the truly ordinary Americans are cut from better cloth than that. Martin
I agree. McCain is a weak target. Here is how Obama can win: 1) Identify McCain as a beliigerent war-hawk, in favour of sending more to die in the streets of Baghdad, and who knows, maybe Iran next? Ask lots of questions about Blackwater. Ask where he stops - N Korea, Syria? Ask him to definitively rule out a draft. Middle America will sh*t their lily-livered pants at the thought of a foaming-at-the-mouth McCain drafting their sons to be packed off to another Vietnam in the Middle East. 2) Identify McCain with soaring gas and food prices. This one is easy: link McCain with Bush and therefore with Big Oil. Slogan: wanna pay $10 for gas? Vote John McCain. 3) Emphasise Obama's protectionist policies in the industrial heartland (like Michigan). Make them think that free-trade McCain is going to keep the borders open to underpriced goods from China and the rest of the world, exporting jobs and favouring outsourcing by faceless corporations. Make the working class American nervous about the Republican trade policy. 4) Emphasize the economic record of the Republicans: lack of regulation allowing free-market capitalism gone to excess, with CEOs earning millions by creating reckless lending bubbles which throw ordinary Joes out of work. Quote every source he can on how Bush & the Republicans have a bad economic record - cite the current slowdown/recession and housing slump, and label it the Republican legacy. Point to the gigantic deficit and the debt load which has *doubled* under Bush. This is the perfect ground to battle McCain in debates on. McCain knows *nothing* about economics, he will look like a dumb 15 year old high school dropout. 5) As soon as he gets the nomination, Obama should hang all his leftie friends out to dry. Go mainstream, capture the centre. Right now he needs them to beat Hillary. Once he's nominated, he has them locked up anyway - who are they gonna vote for, a right-winger? 6) Keep the election about slogans and propaganda, not policy details. Bush, and before him Goebells, have proved time and time again that slogans work better than intellectual debates about policy intricacies. The average voter is dumb, uninformed, and uncritical. They vote on emotion and hope rather than reason or facts. Obama is great at pitching slogans in prepared speeches, like other charismatic politicians (e.g. JFK, Reagan, MLK). He should stick to that, and keep debates or interviews with prepared media experts at a minimum.
I'm short the dollar so I hope McCain wins. Borrowing money for war and deflating the dollar = ??? for me!
I know liberals consider it unfair and clearly racist to quote Obama's own words. That may be why Ann coulter has been the only one to quote from his book, which has frightening episodes of race-based rage. In any event, Obama was the one who clearly expressed contempt for ordinary Americans, not me. Of course, he did it in front of a big bucks SF crowd, and didn't expect his words to see the light of day. Maybe the reason you only hear it from "Republican elites" is that the liberal media is on their knees for this guy and refuse to report anything negative.
The main reason McCain is in trouble is because of the failure of the Bush administration and the failure of the republicans in congress, period. If either one, that is republicans in congress or the president had been even half way successful or even appeared competent then McCain could of been a walk in for President. The republicans should get what they deserve this election year, an old fashioned butt kicking. I think a democratic sweep would be good for the republican party too, it would force them to part with the neocons and the religious right and focus on what is good for the country and the majority of Americans, something they haven't done in quite a while.