Am I hallucinating or are there in fact a bunch of pessimists out there right now when it comes to market outlook? I am usually the most pessimistic guy in the room, but nowadays I seem to be one of the more optimistic ones. If my senses don't deceive me on the above, I have a theory that the economic outlook is weighting heavily on people right now. And that they transfer their perception of the economy on their market expectations. "Is this the Economy, stupid?" Please chime in!
Until proven otherwise, surf's still up. QEIII will get stocks heading much higher as will the raising of the debt ceiling. The US isn't going to default -- simple as that.
SPY is at the level that are ~ Highs of 2008, it is Up nicely for 2011 and only 4% away from 2011 High. Where is the excited crowd?
Excited crowd is at the supermarkets and discount stores hording on the basic supplies just in case hyperinflation hits as a result of RAT infested epidemic. ps: RATs Republicans Are Traitors!
The Standard & Poor's 500 closed more than 1% below its intraday high in each session last week from Monday through Thursday, a buckling streak not seen since a similar nine-day spell in March 2009 that immediately preceded this bull market. Such persistent determination to sell into strength eventually exhausts the selling pressure, and in 14 such prior instances, the stock market has gone on to average gains of 4.3% a month later and 11.7% after six months, notes Bespoke Investment Group. http://online.barrons.com/article/S...ml?mod=BOL_twm_mw#articleTabs_panel_article=1
the anxiety as manifested by VIX spike, is it due to: 1) the debt ceiling uncertainty 2) Italy/Europe problems 3) or US economy prospects? 1) is very short-term and should go away in 2 weeks. i don't even understand why anybody would seriously worry about the debt ceiling formality. 2) Italy was in the news recently, so it could have caused VIX spike. the problems in Europe won't go away for some time and the problems are becoming the old news fast. 3) were there any fresh worries about US economy? bad unemployment numbers? the earnings season has just started. it is too early for bad news from that front.
It is not about whether there would be a deal, but rather about the details of the deal--- the devil(risk/reward) is in the details!