more like, the average fund manager is still bullish on earnings. if earnings dont come down significantly from these levels along with a recession that would be the first time in history I believe, so take your profits man
Optioncoach is dead on. Who can understand the Market - but the market. What you MUST know is that the it looks ahead 6-9 months out. So whatever you are seeing now is what is priced in down the road. All the current mumbo-jumbo is backwards looking - as far as the market is concerned. FYI I do not entirely agree with Stock_Trd3r: smartism? pS
I don't understand why you think you have to get "completely out of the market". Why would you want to make such an all-or-nothing decision? With interest rates at 2%, cash is not exactly a good long-term return asset class. You need to stop thinking in terms of putting all your money in stocks or all out of stocks based on short-term timing decisions. Instead, build a diversified long-term investment portfolio spread across multiple asset classes: US stocks, international stocks, emerging market stocks, real estate, bonds, TIPS, and commodities. Forget timing and just keep your preferred allocations over the long-haul, minimising costs, taxes, and stress. Here's a balanced ETF portfolio for you, that would have held up pretty well in both 2007-08 and 2000-2003: 15% SPY 10% IWM 15% EFA 5% VWO 15% RWR 15% TIP 15% IEF 5% DBC 5% GSG That gives you only 25% exposure to US stocks, another 20% to World & Emerging Markets stocks, and the rest in a mix of real estate, bonds, TIPS and commodities. Your chance of losing 50% on that portfolio is almost zero, even in a next great depression. Read this thread for more info: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125840
if you feel puzzled, that means you are out of sysc with the market. think fundamentally, look and act technically. the market already bottomed, news media/expert/econimists always lag, they want the sure thing.
an opinion which is worth zippo. the current new age thinking at the Fed. means that most any poor crdeit will be monetized. with inflation at 10% and the 10 year trez at 3.80, who else is buying that crap other than Benny B-52 and the lost planet airmen.
Yep. Inflate or die until the global markets for resources breakdown because everyone starts hoarding. Of course this is already happening.
Earnings and guidance haven't been that bad and the credit system 'seems' to have not collapsed (though it sure is tight). Combine those with the myriad other supply/demand variables, fear and greed, and you have your answer. Traders will be fine as long as we have volatility and are selective.