Now were cooking....LOL....Let's have some real time in the game convo. No offense to tech talk or the philoshpcial but, who's putting money to work tomorrow or not! FWIW.. I think the overnight session is pretty meaningless for the most part, unless the open confrims the price action....The market could easily be putting in the final low's here; in the middle of the month only to close at the new highs toward the end. But the key is the open. SP futures are now down 14, and the Low could be in jeopardy. (I doubt it, but...) Anyhow, in my opinion tomorrow's open will tell us not only how the day will finish, but more than likely the rest of the week as well.... You gotta love this stuff.....I can't wait to get up early tomorrow turn on my computer and go to work.... Did I just say that...LOL.....Night gentleman and Happy Trade!
Feels different. It's not just tonight's after hours, the Nikkei started to get abnormally weak around midnight last night. A 400 point fall last night in the Nikkei in 2-3 hours is not just normal course of business. Another 600 point fall today with the Tokyo Stock Exchange threatening to halt trading due to capacity constraints is not a regular occurance. S&P down 5-8 on earnings and weak overseas markets is acceptable and can be brushed aside. When was the last time anyone has recently seen -13+ overnight? It's a nuance difference. I'm just trying to read the tea-leaves and not make a wild prediction. I guess i've felt the market wildly overvalued for many many years and am always on the look out for this type of unusual activity. With that said, when you have a bias, you often see ghosts. Still selling short with stops above.
NTB, I posted earlier tonight that I'd shorted the spoos into the SGX Nikkei break of 16,000. No argument there, but I was looking for more, and I simply don't "feel" the follow through.
Keep in mind the Nikkei has had three times the move to the upside that we had. They have a lot more to give back. I'm not sure you can use the Nikkei as any kind of indicator. Otherwise you should have argued that we should have crossed 12k on the Dow to keep up with the Nikkei rally.
Or you could postulate that the Nik was holding up the deck of cards. Every Nikkei rally of >200 would rally the PM spoos a few handles. I don't think it's catastrophic since I am inclined to buy on Wednesday.
I happened to be awake last night around 1 am and saw the Nikkei break hard. I made a large sale in S&Ps at that time as S&Ps hadn't really reacted and I thought something was weird with such a quick drop in Nikkei. My sale was around 1291.50 in S&P. Unfortunately, I stopped out on about 60% of the position near the close of regular session today as the market closed near intra-day high. Lucky to still hold some shorts and now I'm back in the game on the sell side. One day move is nothing, I'm interested in the meat of the move over the next few months if something real is going on. S&P could fall hundreds of points when the world changes. Greenspan/Bernanke effect should not be underestimated but as always price action will dictate the trade.