I'm not a tough guy and no, I would not be shocked. I'm sorry, but how much capital a guy has to trade with doesn't impress me. Or how much he says he has. Seriously, I know guys that that manage 100 million because because they were born into a nice family trust. They have a hard time tieing their shoelaces. I'll tell you what will impress me. Something original and insightful, something that if I read it might actually make me think for a second. The sky is falling remarks rarely impress me. It's just reactionary thinking, knee jerk responses.
NQ's up 12.5, you think about that. Oh yeah, we get those overnight moves allllllllllllllllllll the time.
I need some clarification on the Nikkei move up. The other night when the Nikkei was down, I was thinking that you had indicated that that may be bullish for US equities. Does that mean that this move up may be bearish for US? Best regards--
No, it was a rhetorical question. The original comment was baseless. The point of my remark was that it could be any number of 1000 reasons why our markets may not follow through to the downside while Japan does. I'm asking you to think outside the box. The sky is falling is not thinking outside the box. It's a reflex response.
I don't think that you are referring to me as the one posting 'sky is falling' posts. If you look at my posting history, I've never made any postings predicting the sky to be falling or anything remotely resembling that. Also, I started this thread to point out what I perceived as 'unusual' activity. Not that the sky was falling. I happened to be right as the market has it's largest down move in a number of years the next 2 days. My experience allowed me to pick up on some nuances in the price action. Nothing more, nothing less. Today is a new day and that move from the other day is over. Whether or not it proves to be a clue of future market moves remains to be seen. An experienced trader would not ignore or brush aside a move like that with those characteristics off-handedly. I'm not predicting anything, I'm just aware of my surroundings. I traded through the LTCM debacle and the $/Yen move of 1998 (15 figures in one day). I have my battle scars and if I see something worth noting, it's important.
I did not consider a move down to 1250 or 1200 this year to be sky is falling, but the normal moves up and down in a market due to any number of factors. I don't use knee jerk to trade , rather I take what the market gives me up or down and use stops so that when wrong I'm out. I use the fundamental side (year or more) to reposition my mutual funds and I use the technical side in my trading account although mine is quite a bit smaller than NTB. In fact, I pay no attention daily to any news, don't turn on CNBC, Bloomberg etc--do not watch the payroll report etc. I am totally technical in the trading account. Now if this move up continues, I'll be out and looking for new entries perhaps joining the bulls. Thank you for your views on the markets--comments are well respected and analyzed.
'This (The Nikkei) has nothing to do with our markets. In fact, if anything it's bearish if people are moving their money into the Asian equity markets and out of ours. The money has to come from somewhere right?
I'm referring to ET in general. And that move we had was no where near the move we had just last October. Where do you get this biggest move in a number of years. A little short term memory problem? LOL.
You obviously skipped over my earlier post. This issue was already addressed. Feel free to click the back button at your earliest disposal.
I can't recall the S&P down more than 23 points in one day in October. But again, i'm not perfect, maybe it happened. But it hasn't happened often in the last 4 years. Again, it's a nuance. It's not just the size of the move. It's the speed, breadth, volume, number of orders, feel, etc. It's the difference between 'reading price action' and reading charts. A chartist can tell you the numbers, a reader of price action can feel markets. The highest form of trading is artistic and not just scientific. Everyone can paint, only one Picasso. You guys are only focusing on the size of the move in black and white. The move 'felt' strange to me. Maybe my intuition signals it's importance, or, maybe it's just another mistaken signal which will amount to nothing. When you've traded for 18 years, you don't ignore your radar and you don't get crazy about it either. You just take it under advisement and wait for more info with an open mind. Overall, I'm looking down not up in the market at the moment. If further evidence emerges to support this view, I'll act more forcefully. Right now, I'm in probing mode.