Bottom line is that while money supply stays the same in an economy, all the money is not actually in the stock market, say the Nikkei. It is invested elsewhere or is in the bank or the sofa cushions etc. Thus while overall wealth/money does not fall, the wealth in the market certainly can fall when there are gaps down with no trading and no one has shorted. In that instance, there is no one within the confines of the particular market who has taken money out of he market to move elsewhere. The same does not hold true in futures markets where contracts are created by someone going long and someone going short. Gaps in those markets do create a transfer of money/wealth within the particular market and can be moved to other investments. While it is very mathematically true that total money in an economy doesn't change , the total wealth of a given market can go down with no money removed to be used elsewhere unless there are shorters.
This thread went way off topic. What's the point to continue to post. Not one guy on this thread has the foggiest understanding of what they are talking about. So the point is moot.
Hmmm...Well, it appears a recovery (once again) is under way. The fact is that we haven't had a 10% drawdown in the major indices since March 2003. http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060124/13831.html?.v=1 Things have been a little too calm, methinks. For position-trading and longer-term investing, you've been able to buy every pullback without any serious worries. But one of these days, the shoe has got to drop.
Why would you be short here? We've had nothing but bad earnings, Almost $70 oil, a crisis in Iran and what does the market do? It rallies nicely after two down days. If we can't get any follow through with news that bad, what do you think will happen if oil goes back to 62, we get some good earnings, and things calm down in Iran? Think about it.
Once the charts show me that it's time to get long again, I will at that point. I only have 1.5% of portfolio risked on the short play. (short at 1293.50) Thank you for the insight on the bull side. I'll review.