certainty is a 100% probability,that is no trade because no one will take the other side of the transaction:both of us are saying the same thing except that i always try to see the reason why; the trade must make sense [to me]
yes that is important.....it must suit your mentality. I try to see where the money is and then scalp or swing according to the price action i see and understand.......
I've been thinking about this interesting question, and discussing it with some friends, since you posted it. I offer five observations on the subject ... 1. Everything's relative (is trading easier or more difficult than neurosurgery? Are its overall success-rates better or worse than those involved in other "self-employed ventures"?). 2. For most people's purposes, most of the time, trading depends on some familiarity and mastery of mathematical concepts (statistics/probability) which are broadly both counterintuitive and badly taught subjects. 3. Many people approaching it (and there really are "many", perhaps partly because of its ever-increasing ready availability) have unreasonable, unrealistic expectations of how easy/difficult it will be, and there's therefore a widespread tendency for people to become frustrated/disillusioned with it. 4. It's easier for most people to make a living as vendors than as traders, and partly for this reason the overall standard of the educational resources available is of particularly poor quality, misguided and misleading; it's difficult for aspiring traders to distinguish between information and misinformation, to assess relevance, and to judge by whom to choose to be guided. 5. The people whose trades move the markets and therefore effectively control price movements are those trading the biggest volumes, who tend, collectively, to be among the best informed and most experienced traders, against whom one is (directly or indirectly) competing.
If you think it is difficult, it will definitely be difficult. If you think it is simple, then most likely it will be easy. So if the mindset / frame of mind is not set properly, then success is not within reach.
I'm far from convinced about that part. I think unrealistic expectations ("thinking it's simple") are a common reason for failure, not for success. Given how many people approach trading imagining that it's simple (especially naive spot forex beginners, partly because of the comparative lack of any significant entry-barriers, the readily available high leverage, and the "expert advisors" for MT4 offering the dream of automated income ... judging by all the participants in forums like Babypips and ForexFactory and the grotesquely misguided things they typically discuss), wouldn't one imagine that the success-rates might be very much higher than they are, if "thinking it's simple" were a reason for success rather than for failure?
In addition.... 1. Trading is more of a 50-50 proposition than aspiring traders hope/believe. In every trade there is a buyer and a seller... equally convinced that their side of the transaction is the correct play. 2. Losing is painful. Losing money is usually especially painful. We are hard-wired to avoid pain and that plays into how we cope with risk. And then there's the "hope" aspect. "I hope I get lucky". Unfortunately, luck has a way of not showing up when we need it most.
So the problem is solved: you should think it is easy and you will most likely make billions. I have seen in the past 2 decades many people who thaught it was easy. Most of them hit the wall. And they changed their opinion... they know now it is not simple.