In literally every poll that has Obama ahead right now, and even many of the ones that have him behind. This is the posted poll from today. Here is the polling demographics that you have to link to in the small print. Why does the poll have a +6% weighting of Dems vs Repubs? And why is it completely overweight on independents? And here is the Reuters/Ipsos Poll from the other day. Again, why is it favoring Dems by 9-points in the sample? Most recent polling that I've seen indicates the following national demographic. Dem --- 34%-ish Repub-- 32%-ish Ind ---- 27%-ish Other--- 6% I understand that last year the number of claimed Independents was in the mid 30s, but that is normal for a non-election year. All recent polling shows a drop in the number of independents, a light rise in Repubs, and even for the Dems.