Why is This Different from Japan's "Lost Decade"

Discussion in 'Economics' started by achilles28, Oct 16, 2008.

  1. achilles28


    Everything seems extremely close except Bubble Size.

    Their Market quadrupled. Ours tripled.

    Their housing peak saw valuations in the tens of times. While ours saw valuations contained to single digit multiples (2X, 3X, 4X etc).

    Other than the obvious differences (economy, juxtaposition etc), everything seems pretty much the same.

    How is it "different" this time?

    Any thoughts?
  2. poyayan


    If we are lucky, it will be Japan style. If not, we will be Iceland/Argentina2001/Zimbawei.
  3. achilles28


    Holy F*ck.

    I listen to a few economists and they're calling for Depression.

    Bob Chapman, Craig Roberts, Max Keiser. Peter Schiff

    Granted, they're all doom and gloomers.

    But they've got good reason to be....

    Everyone has their money tied up in assets that are 2-3 Times overvalued.

    Meaning a lot of people are gonna go bankrupt or be deeply indebted if and when this bubble deflates!
  4. Lost decade are you taking the piss? The Jap market is at levels not seen since the 80's

    This could be the case with the states as contrary to popular belief stocks dont always rise at least in the med term. Imagine the Dow at 8000 10 years from now?
  5. The Japanese had a better fiscal position and higher savings rate and could spend spend spend to soften the blow. The US is in a tighter spot in that respect.
  6. Yes. In most areas of the U.S., we didn't see valuations in the tens of times. Heck, not even 2X depending on what time scale....like maybe if you used a 5 year time scale or something. Their price rose in part because they are an island and have no room to expand. We can keep building in Texas...no real border yet that constrains us.

    The market may have Tripled in California, but it has done that many times.

    Also, excess savings caused part of the problem in Japan. We're not that disciplined.

    I'm a housing Permabull thats been proven wrong. I had more faith in the banks than I should have had. But Doom and Gloomers still make me laugh. I love you guys for that.

  7. The Japanese did not bail out the banks, no recapitalization. That lead to a decade of no growth and declining stocks.
    The Mexicans refinanced loans. The Swedish nationalized banks and recapitalized them.

    Those are the differences.

    So far the US has not recapitalized banks, employing a "waiting game," for the effects of others paying to fund their own banks...