Why is there no fear? Why is everyone so quiet?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by jreynolds212, Jan 19, 2008.

  1. The S&P500 has wiped out all of 2007s and most of 2006s advances. The index has dropped over 14% over its highs and there is bad news coming out on a daily basis.

    Back in 2006 and in Feb of 2007, there was a lot of fear. Now Im not talking about the put/call index or the ISEE sentiment number, but just the overall feeling on the street. The overall feeling on this message board.

    I login here everday and no one seems to care. In addition, many of the old posters have disappeared from the board like the Stonedinvestor, Steve Tvardek, Willam Rennick, Stocktrader etc. They probably blew their accounts.

    This is the perfect time for shorts. Bears do not thrive in markets with lots of fear and action, but in markets where no one seems to care. In this market no one seems to care and, therefore, there is no Steve Tvardek waiting down below to catch the bid.

    The price keeps falling further and further everyday. No one seems to want to buy. Even if they did want to buy, the price action from 2007 has blown their accounts.

    Has the market crashed? Yes it has crashed, but in slow motion. Each day we lose a little bit more ground giving up a few more percentage here and a few percentage there. Every once in a while we have a token short covering rally.

    I almost feel like this is 1987 or 1929, but done in slow motion over a period of months rather then a day or two.

    So I say to you, elitefader, what says you?
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  2. are you still short gold and all in on csun?
  3. steve tvardek is a scalper dood, he holds trades for about 50 seconds, why would he be catching your bid?
  4. No panic yet due to the Lagging brain power of the average individual. Very few understand Economics let alone what is truly going on right now.

    I spoke with friends who are in the 'Trenches" in Chicago. They are nervous but they also know that there is going to be a lot of opportunity to make a lot of money.

    Fade every Rally is key. However, you need to have excellent entry levels as the reversals are strong.

    I work in the industry of DPPs. The individuals I deal with are worried as well but have enough wealth to weather any storm. However, they are still taking risk in Direct Participation Offerings and rather do such then put any money in the US markets.

    The people who are not"worried' are the sheepole. They are to stupid to understand what is coming down the pipe-line. They are to busy trying to borrow and spend.

    There is a huge difference between what Japan went through during their housing deflation and crash and what the US is going to feel. The US household does not have savings. The Japanese Households did. The US consumer is carrying more debt than the Japanese House holders were back when they crashed. This is a very dangerous situation for the average US joe/sally.

    IMHO, what is going to happen is not a depression. It will feel that way to most US consumers. However, there will be one big move to wipe out the middle class. They will fall into proverty, mass job loses in Financial Sectors, Banks, (Mainly brokers and support staff will be let go.), RE jobs and RE agents will see a mass exodus, Homebuilders will go belly up as will Home Insurance firms, title companies and anything else tied to RE. Retail, and most service sector jobs will take a massive hit. Trickle down as we are a consumer society with massive debt.

    Yet, True Traders, the Wealthy, Investment Banking, M&A, will survive and have a chance to make more money than every before.

    Cliff notes: If your in debt, as a consumer or as a Company, if your leveraged and not liquid you are finished.

    Otherwise, hang on and get ready for one of the best times in modern history to make money.
  5. I do think Gold is on its way down. This is what I see.
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  6. you said it was crashing $100 ago....
  7. wake37


    jreynolds212 your stupidity never ceases to amaze me. How do you find time to post between your mom hasseling you to clean your room and doing your homework. Run along back to your cave you little troll. By the way since you went all in on csun your investment has been cut in half , and you are down 10% on short gold position, and you talk about people blowing out their accounts. lol Furthermore if you are such a short god why go long on pos like csun. Now dont forget that algebra test on tuesday.
  8. Allen3


    Your probably just on everybodies ignore list. You start these crap threads several times a day. The market is on it's way down okay everybody can see that. Most people are more interested in what to do with the info in front of them than coming into your threads to circle jerk. Now If you want to talk about the cold in winter or it being hot in the summer, well then I'm all ears. Bye
  9. and its better to be in a trench than a tranche these days!
  10. dsq


    weve been oversold and expecting a bounce for quite a while...however the fear panic doesnt seem to have hit the public yet...pretty strange...even the vix is fluctuating...i ve been expecting to see a panic selloff climax day for a while and nada....
    #10     Jan 19, 2008