In the US everybody is getting screwed by Bush. If Italy and Portugal get out of the EURO zone, the EURO will become stronger because the weak partners will leave the EURO zone and the strong ones will stay in. Talking about going down, what is happening with the dollar? I have the impression he went down slightly. What's Warren Buffett saying for years now, about the dollar and the US economy? I live in the EURO zone. The expression of 200% hyperinflation and exploding prices are "slightly" over exagerated.
NO WONDER the $USD is going down the toilet.. American government and leadership is.... well, how else can I put this.... HORSESHIT!!
Guys, guys, guys, First of all, massive consumption alone will drive the World econ, regardless of domestic output (of course you can't keep consuming without output). The US is the only country that consumes like there is no tomorrow. Most rapid growth countries are export dependent. China, and yes, Brazil for example. Take the US out of the picture, bye, bye! The US still, by far, dictates global economics, regardless of what the upstarts think. Even those countries with little US trade are dependent on the US as they trade with other countries that rely on the US. Almost no country is insulated from this (exceptions include Cuba, N Korea, maybe Romania, and a few tribal countries here and there). Additionally, although the EU has worked so far, once a major member is suffering from lack of control over its own interest rates, and pulls out, ka boom! Sooner or later it will happen. A single currency means sacrificing interest rate controls on a national basis. And PLEASE, don't compare the US to the entire EU. On a nation to nation basis, there is no comparison. Nor will there be for quite some time. Its similar to where the US has to play all of Europe in golf and tennis. If population is an issue, them China should be forced to play N America, Europe, and Russia. All at the same time. Geez.
"Look at china they produce but consume few things," Are you only talking about consuming imported good? They are a very small consumer of imported goods, but a huge consumer of local products.
Guy, guy, guy. I think you have some out dated opinions on the world. First of all, you make it sound like the world survives BECAUSE of the US. As the US becomes lesser important, the world adapts. You make it sound like economies do not change and adapt. If the US were instantly eliminated, then yes, I agree SHOCK, and then recovery. But it's a slow erosion that will take many years, so it allows economies to adjust. It's obvious there's a gradual erosion in America, and growth outside. This is the adjusting right in front of your eyes...happening in real time.
Same thing was being said in the late seventies and 80's, that the US was falling behind Japan. Now it's China. What happened to Japan? They reached the limit of the growth they could have, given a one-party, mercantilist model that disallowed immigration. When they were playing catch-up they were fine, but now that they've caught up, they can't go any further. China has a lot further to go to catch up because of its huge population, so the process there will take longer. But their model is a more extreme version of the one-party mercantilist model of Japan, because of their communist political structure. So while they will drive down the relative importance of the US, that will only be because they will increase the overall global economic pie. US will still be number one when all is said and done, even if China's economy is nominally larger for a time because of their massive population. And China's population is aging very rapidly because of its past one-child policy, so they may find themselves stagnating at the same time as they need massive sums of money to keep their old folks in Depends. So long-term, I'm not worried by China. India, OTOH, is showing signs of gradually transforming from an overbureaucratized, socialist model to a real capitalist economy. They actually have two large, functioning parties that take turns governing. They have a chance of overturning the US, but they are also growing more slowly and won't do so for a long time, if they do get their act together. They don't have the demographic time bomb on their hands that China does, either, so if they manage to get past socialism and mercantilism, they would be the true threat to the US. But that threat is a half century away, so that'll be a problem for my great-grandchildren.
Yes, there is. I agree. But the process, negating any major global upheavals, is going to take a generation or two. And its not going to be China. Odds are they will have a major revolution first. Two thirds of their population are in complete poverty. Most of their banks are insolvent (but continually propped by the gov). That trillion dollars of reserves will hold them off for awhile when the USA goes into recession. But long term? Ka boom!
Two thirds of China's population in poverty. Where did you come up with that number? China has a steady growing 'middle-class' the opposite of the US where the 'middle-class' is shrinking. History shows a strong, growing middle class goes hand in hand economic prosperity.
where do you come up with your numbers, growing middle-class? what is wrong with ET, they delete all threads with anti-chinese posts in them, what the fuck, as if chinese are worth something in the first place