The obvious is not obvious to many because the pysche is not in tune. There are numerous parts to ourselves which come into play, intelligence, ability, experience, psychology, desire, emotion, convenience, luck, determination, peers, sharing of ideas, being in the right place at the right time, ability to react..... the trading game is multifaceted. The markets are dynamic, twisting and turning, moving fast, slow, acceleration, deacceleration, unpredictable frequently. When the market moves in such a fashion that it's 'obvious' then often we're found wrong because from experience the obvious is not obvious. So for some people, trading is not hugely difficult because 'their stars line up' for a number of reasons, for others they haven't a chance as their psyche is out of tune to trading.