Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    Just want you to know I have a few bad days in life recently and in this post I am just venting.

    IMHO, the genius of @nysestocks is his refusal to "reveal" what is the obvious and we need to figure it out ourselves. There is no shortcut.

    In 2023, I re-visited this thread and changed my day trading approach. The jury is still out if I have found my edge. Only time will tell. I do have an edge in trading options but that is a completely 100% different animal.

    There is a sizable group of amateur retails on ET and I am one of them. Many are successful traders but most are not.

    Some of us hung around for years hoping to learn something from the large group of professional traders that lives here. Sad to say many eventually gave up and moved on.

    Take care @Wide Tailz , hope you figure out how to catch that fat tail (not chasing your own tail :D).
     
    #8621     Oct 18, 2024
    Sekiyo and TVIS like this.
  2. There is a supernatural support group that I already posted about in the religion forum, and I'll refrain from mentioning it now. But this world is full of obstacles and enemies all around. It had to be that way, lest man become a god in his own mind and create hell on earth. Fight the good fight!

    For me, I realized like predicted in this thread, that the answer was right in the entrance, off to the side. But I had to go deeper and explore the inside of the pyramid, guided by gurus and books, and have finally realized it was a total waste. The door right off the entrance held the simple answer. I'm in the process of letting go of all the junk I filled my brain with, over the years, trying to find the philosopher's stone of swing trading. There is no secret. It's right out in the open!
     
    #8622     Oct 18, 2024
    schizo, ironchef and baron193 like this.
  3. odlareg

    odlareg

    TFF, Twenty For Fifty
     
    #8623     Nov 9, 2024
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    :thumbsup: All retails did the same, me included.

    There are > 350 different indicators that TOS offers to us retail day traders. I tried about 30-40 with various combinations and permutations, perhaps a hundred different settings? They worked great looking through the rearview mirror of backtesting but none worked when I forward tested them in TOS's real time day trading simulator.
     
    #8624     Nov 9, 2024
    Sekiyo likes this.
  5. Onra

    Onra

    That's an old riddle; which I couldn't solve...
    Is this still correct in terms of letters:
    T..... F.. F.... (?)
     
    #8625     Nov 11, 2024
  6. I did the same on Tradestation, yearz ago. I'm down to one indicator and volume, because the Lord showed me a clue one night while I was observing the week of Tabernacles, walking back to my camper in the dark and saw an eerie glow, emanating from the ground.....
     
    #8626     Nov 11, 2024
    ironchef and Sekiyo like this.
  7. Traderz

    Traderz

    Ah this thread still alive, the cockroach of threads that refuses to die :D. It does have an allure but a lot of time can be wasted here. Better off to spend time observing price IMHO. It only does 3 things after all.
     
    #8627     Nov 18, 2024
  8. Other observations over the yearz:

    Besides price moving up, down, and sidewayz.....

    it also moves in bursts, consolidations, and V reversals

    Sometimes the spikes overlap and other times they are separated by consolidations

    Sometimes the flags (windsocks) hang sideways and sometimes they hang down

    Sometimes gaps close and sometimes price bounces on a place it bounced before

    And other times everyone's expectations get obliterated by a humungous tail event!
     
    #8628     Nov 20, 2024
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    You sir just described the behavior of Brownian motion with a Fat Tailz. :D
     
    #8629     Nov 27, 2024
    NotTheExpert likes this.
  10. I still don’t get it. Is it the fact that there are consistent winners and consistent losers at different times. Occasional randomness to throw you off. Figure out who’s winning and follow that trend until it ends? For instance, today is thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner. Is the market most likely going to do exactly what we expect it to do to generate interest so ultimately more people can eventually lose money? Or is it all just random??

    Side note… it’s been over a year and I still can’t figure out the password to anfoptions28 pdf
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2024
    #8630     Nov 28, 2024