There once were two friends called High and Low But ol' Stoploss whacked 'em above and below The average pips maimed Was down to timeframe Know your scale and you'll steal the show
So I just realized I could reply directly in here which is helpful. I could never figure out the and options password (kept trying so hard to figure it out!) I tried things like “clock” “tick” “time” and other generic things I could think of. Anyways, I feel pretty confused. Are you guys talking about trading against other traders? I had another idea too. Is there some sort of cycle of blown accounts where patterns work and then gradually work less and less by changing? Am I thinking too much? Sometimes I have trouble even interpreting the patterns because I can’t put them into a pattern box that makes sense because it feels random at a certain point… but is that the case? Any help appreciated.
So you’re saying that the obvious is that it’s a person’s impatience that stops them from being profitable?
Sorry, still knocking my brain over this thread. I’ve been rereading it for months because I feel like there has got to be some value here. I wonder if the real value is I need to “think” and not become sheep. That is so hard because I even second guess myself all the time even when I’m potentially right. I have some ideas for how to trade what I see and not what I want to see. I have even made this work. Sadly, it seems like the market will change too fast for me to adapt. Maybe that is where experience comes in. I don’t know. Does being a contrarian mean trading against others or is the OP saying that I need to use different tools like something like point in figure which does not rely on time? If I do not backtest, how can I ever know? Backtesting software now days let’s me play in “real time”. If I go through it slowly enough, would this be more sensible? Is it really just using the right tools or is it using the wrong tools in the right way? The OP says to not think the same way as others do but other people (the herd) seem to believe in risk control which is actually a herd belief? But at the same time, the OP says that walking the path is different from knowing the path so maybe they were getting at the idea that we need to exercise control instead of just knowing that we need control? Is it even possible to get the anf options pdf password now? I can’t see the original chart images etc. I’ve come to deduce that TA (price action) does work (according to the OP) but other means of analysis do not seem to work. I tend to use candles… I can see what the charts are showing me what other traders are thinking…. Am I getting close?
Backtest is pointless, because you are testing what happened in the past. That is NOT what is going to happen in the future. You should include a touch of FA to guide your decisions. Like this coming Wednesday with the CPI and Fed minutes being released. And Euro markets were closed today for Easter Monday. Hold onto your potatoes!
If you can’t accurately reproduce the same behavior that made you money in the past, then what is the point? Backtesting software allows you to replay in real time and you can see the historical events. If you can’t succeed in Backtesting, why would you possibly succeed in live?
Yeah but if you can’t find a way to define the probability, wouldn’t you just be better picking an entry at random?
Don’t get me wrong. I like the idea of mindful trading but shouldn’t you be able to backtest this also?