Driving a car: I learned how to drive by lessons and by experience. Each day the weather conditions are different. The other traffic changes. My car is different. In the (parking) box it is different. Time of day is different: busy, quiet, night, day. It is always different: Do I have control? I can control myself, not the environment. Anything can happen anytime. Does above mean that there are contradictions? Yes. To get home safe, I have to adapt. To make money I have to adapt. No certainties, just possibilities. Btw, who is mrs Boyd?
Big difference is, driving a car is largely deterministic. Financial markets are anything but. That's why trading is one of the hardest things to be successful at.
Nice thread. I've watched a few folk over the years dangle carrots about how "obvious" or "easy" it is....."once you see it you can't unsee it". But 800 pages and 13 years later...it doesn't look like too many people saw what nysestocks saw. I remember round about the same time there was a guy CrucialPoint (think it was on FF) with very similar theories...and again quite a lot of riddles and puzzles...lol...wonder if it was the same person? The writing style seemed quite different mind you....and it was nothing to do with NYSE stocks... but it gave the impression that all charts dance to the same beat...forex, indices, commodities, stocks. And really...little importance was given to the history of the chart.. just trading in the now, in the current candle, in whatever TF that may be. It caught my attention at the time because all my trading was based on looking left. So what is the "obvious"? I've heard people say candles have no place in trading, they just package price into a time interval. An H1 candle can "hide" a lot of information from a daytrader. It can look like a solid move up or down but you can't "see" the price action when it takes out a former high or low. Both NS and CP mention OHLC a lot so it's important. What info can we gather from that? Well, an ADR/ATR for one. If we are daytrading we could use hourly ATR as a guide for how much our current candle could move. With price moving fractally, we could also check today's Daily candle movement in relation to the average Daily movement lately. Would there still be enough movement left in our daily range to allow our H1 move to play out? From OHLC we can always work out a midpoint too. Long bias when price is above yesterday's midpoint? What about today? The midpoint varies as the day's range expands. Still the same principle? Longs above current midpoint and yesterday's midpoint. Price often does measured moves... can these be more accurately measured given the data within OHLC? Onto the BLSH 90%/10% thing. I've only read the first 40 pages or so of the thread. Was it nysestocks preferred method to fade breakouts. It does make sense...stoplosses lie above recent highs and lows and you need fuel before you can start a journey anywhere, right? There will always be the "fear" that price just continues past a high or low after BO..but should that be a reason to discard these trades? ......... What if the average swing in your timeframe is 150 pips ? What if the average break of a recent high or low is 20 pips in that timeframe? What if there was a very high chance that after breaking that recent high/low price would at LEAST return to the point of breakout?....is that the "obvious"? What if we opened 2 trades near the 20 pip breakout limit...TP on one as we retrace to the BO point and let the other run to the other end of that 150 pip swing..or if it bounces and decides to go in the direction of the BO then we cut just past entry point. Sure..if price just keeps going past the 20 pip average stoploss and there is no retrace then we lose on the 2 trades...but that level can be calculated too and kept quite tight. Sometimes you look at a chart and say "look...that H1 candle just flew through the H/L without pausing for a second". That can be the timeframe illusion. Go down to M1 and you'll very often see that break and retrace that is hidden in H1. Of couse..at NFP or FED decisions price can just blow straight thru. But who is playing on the field at these moment? Is it just intraday scalpers or are the big boys looking for big moves? If they are looking at H4 targets then it makes sense to step aside and not play 20 pip breakout retraces when they might be looking at knocking out larger swing players (eg, 500 point swing with 100 point stoplosses). Anyway...enough of my mad ramblings at the moment. Just thought I'd add my thought to a great thread .
Great post, WRB and NRB and KR's levels of real significance but keeping it very simple, 90% and 10 % but as you said the WHERE and the HOW
Well; reading his old posts is difficult enough... Is it my browser or do others get hieroglyphs a well? "Aside â I can no more change you â than you can change me Sir."