I will add that the big fish will only have to face one issue that the retail trader will not: liquidity so for all of the above to work it will have to stimulate it...
Interesting comments. Are you now making good money after nearly throwing up learning what's 'obvious'?
from the thread "what is the maximum mathematically possible daily profit": @Wide Tailz and @JohnnyBGoode Do you think this is possible?
Sure, both in the positive and negative direction! But if you are in the market to survive in the long run, it's not wise to expect 100% wins, which is the only way betting 50% each trade would make any sense. Even with "the obvious", you occasionally have to cut losses and reverse.
The obvious that is not obvious is that you should take profit early. It is obvious but it is not obvious for obvious reasons: it is really not obvious!
@Vindago - thank you for your reply! I would pushback on only one comment "Well, if I had the capital to impact the price of an instrument I would do what I need to get the price moving in the direction I want to until I need it to do something else. Obviously no retail trader has the least chance to do any of this." I argue a retail trader does have the ability (and capital) to do this. But in what form does the capital lie (hint: a cousin of potential energy), and how does a retail trader access it? @Onra - Hmm, let's say the probability of making 50% in one day is 1/10000 (you can adjust this number to your liking). Each new trading day will multiple the probability of failure by 10,000. In other words, to make 50% three days in a row, the chances are 1/10000 * 1/10000 * 1/10000. This example is contrived and oversimplified, but the general takeaway is that although it might be technically possible, it is not practical.
I really like this, and it's my biggest problem. Found the use for taking profits early many years ago, trading long options. But "the obvious" (I think) we were talking about here is another one. There are many, once you become acclimated to greed and fear. Just like flying. After awhile you stop worrying about crashing. Then you can see how the plane reacts, and trust your senses. There is an "obvious" for landing an airplane, by the way. One instructor taught it to me on a lake bed, one day. Just fly down to ground effect and hold it there. The obvious we're talking about is similar. The plane will land itself.
I wish this thread wasn't so misleading for new people especially. Let's get one thing straight, the "obvious" is not at all obvious, because if it was, everybody would know it. By definition, the word obvious means: "easily perceived or understood; clear, self-evident, or apparent". An example of an obvious thing is drawing a square and recognizing it is a square and not a triangle, because it is apparent it is a square and not a triangle. I don't know what you call "obvious" but if it really was obvious it wouldn't take you many years to figure it out lol. So stop lying to yourself and everyone else that it is obvious. I think the correct term is "hidden in plain sight". Here is an example of that: you have a task to find all the doors in a building. There are 6 doors but you can only find 5 although you have searched for hours and counter 5 doors every single time. Well, you were not aware that the only bookshelf in the building is a secret door. It was there all the time in front of your eyes, but you didn't see it although you were looking at it. It was simply hidden in plain sight. I am very confident that the "obvious" they are talking about is something that you stare every day but cannot recognize, something that is hidden in plain sight and unless someone points it out to you, you will not recognize it. Once you see it, it may seem like it was obvious but it really wasn't. Your brain is simply playing games with you. If the "obvious" has anything to do with manipulation, whales, the herd, stop hunting...let me tell you that all this is a reflection of something else which is much simpler. You need to get down to the most fundamental part, which is by nature extremely simple and very hard to figure out. This simple thing is in front of your eyes all the time when you stare at a chart. It only becomes obvious when it is pointed out to you or you figure it out on your own, hence why it is not obvious at all. This extremely simple thing can be observed in a tennis match, launching a cannon ball, driving a car, flying a plane and of course in the market