Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Onra

    Onra

    Stocks_(PSF).png
    Yeah; to me the thread feels more like a Medieval Torture...

    The shoe is mentioned before...;
    the only association I have is that all the attention goes to the pointy "tails",
    masking the real content inside.
     
    #8041     Jan 13, 2022
    comagnum likes this.
  2. odlareg

    odlareg

    upload_2022-1-13_8-23-57.png
     
    #8042     Jan 13, 2022
  3. Pelt

    Pelt

    Medieval people suffered for fashion with their extremely pointy shoes

    Why Were Medieval Europeans So Obsessed With Long, Pointy Shoes?

    Skeletons reveal the cost of medieval fashion for pointy shoes


    Pointy shoes destroyed rich people's feet in medieval England

    :confused:

     
    #8043     Jan 13, 2022
  4. Dr_Trade

    Dr_Trade

    Agree with you too :D
     
    #8044     Jan 18, 2022
  5. Wide Tailz

    Wide Tailz

    The Obvious can be seen in any competitive market when zero sum dynamics are in play. I find it easier to see on an intraday timeframe but it does exist on the big swing trends to some degree. Daytrading has actually become much easier for me than any other time frame, since my eyes became opened and I knew greed and fear.

    This is my final hint, but I'm sure most of you just think I'm jerking your chains. Well yes, because you need to understand your own weaknesses before you learn to exploit them in others.

    In college, one of the jocks who was also an engineering student mentioned "when the math majors start showing up to the party, it's time to leave"

    It is similar to the poker saying "when you've been sitting at the table for a few minutes and can't tell who the patsy is, it's you"
     
    #8045     Jan 18, 2022
  6. Wide Tailz

    Wide Tailz

    Co worker across the gray wall where I work is beside himself watching TSLA put in a good earnings report and spectacular forecast, yet the stock is still down. NVDA, MSFT, UPST, all making good profits and yet getting whacked bigly.

    I tried to explain some of the foundation of The Obvious to him but it just didn't register in his mind.

    Insurance companies have seen a ~40% increase in deaths in 2021 compared to the historic average, which is many standard deviations above their worst case model. They need to pay out life insurance policies and are selling assets to do so. It's much easier to sell something showing a profit than a loss, so they are lightening up on their winning trades. This is one of many capital flows driving the tech wreck we're seeing now, but all he can think about is bottom-up analysis.

    Do you remember the early posts about Mr. Boyd and his mom, always looking to improve position relative to the enemy and not saying a word about it? Big money is doing this now, or may have been doing it for many months already. Mr. Musk sure got out at a good time......

    The only question there really is, "are you a muppet?"
     
    #8046     Jan 27, 2022
  7. Ed48

    Ed48

    He has a lot to learn if he thinks a company posting good results should immediately equate to a rise in its stock price.

    Over the long term (years), a company's performance will be reflected in its stock price. But in the short term, price can do anything for any number of reasons, and not necessarily even connected with the company itself.

    I imagine he probably considers himself an investor but he clearly doesn't have an investor mindset otherwise he wouldn't be bothered about what the stock does in the short term.

    One of the reasons I think the next bear market could be brutal and protracted (like 1929) is that many of today's "investors" have only ever known the market going up.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2022
    #8047     Jan 31, 2022
  8. Wide Tailz

    Wide Tailz

    It should be very simple. Can you see it?
     
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    #8048     Feb 8, 2022
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Well, yeah, pretty obvious in hindsight. Now, tell me what will happen in the next few months.
     
    #8049     Feb 8, 2022
    theapprentice and Overnight like this.
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Did you spot the market's tell? Tell us you have learned the secret!

     
    #8050     Feb 8, 2022
    unconventional wisdom likes this.