I call these false breakouts. Very common on ES and usually great low risk entries. For what it's worth - my trade management is done using a chart trader on a 1000-volume chart. It gives me some greater detail / granularity, but I'm not 100% sure it's really that valuable in the end. Might be enough with the time based charts where the 1/5-minute is my main focus (plus higher TFs for guidance). Yes. I believe this to be true and I've seen others make predictions based on this kind of data, too. It only makes sense. However, I haven't studied it enough to know if there's any 'edge' to be derived from this kind of information. However, I suppose even the 'big boys' won't always get what they want and as such might have to hedge their exposure resulting in moves even further away from said levels. But what do I know...
to be honest..as B193 said..it all depends on the person..their understanding of what they are doing..and most important.. their financial state ! if you take up trading to "trade your way to financial freedom"..and all the other crap that is touted out there..then you might as well just keep working away and give a few bob to some useful charity like animal welfare now and again.. if..on the other hand..you are lucky and smart enough to be debt free..meaning no mortage..no car loan..no loan of any kind..then you are already financially free..and you are already on the "right path".. but..do not be under any illusions..the secret is to stay debt free..and that means being very careful with your money..and not throw it away needlessly.. this involves some hard work in understanding risk versus reward..and once that is understood..as.. "all the risk management in the world is if no use..unless.." then you can move on to the experience stage..for..if you think you can accomplish anything without spending time and effort to gain the "required feedback"..then..need i repeat myself !! the MES is one way..but a very good way to learn what is required..if FX or some other market works for you..then fine..but the ES is THEEE MARKET..it has everything that is required.. liquidity regulation opportunity - vast!!! open market - no intermediaries 24 hr trading MICRO CONTRACTS Options of Futures need i say any more !
The money aspect seems to be a big paradox in trading. It seems like most are attracted to trading as a means of becoming rich or escaping the rat race as most who enter the world of trading ain't rich to begin with. Yet, too much focus on the money aspect or pressure to generate a particular return only seems to keep them further away from their end goal.
also..just in case you are one that is easily led..and continually looking for "that elusive edge".. don't pay too much heed to any of the charts i post..that is just me rambling on the same as any other idiot on the internet i can change my setup and software in a whim..BUT one thing that will never change is the MTF layout.. reason being..if you don't look at the big picture then you can't see where you have come from..and if you can't see where you have come from..then making an "educated guess" on where you might go next..well..it just plain damn stupid !! the tricky part for me is the order entry setup..i will spend months on this if i have to..why..well..for me it is the key to what i want to accomplish..simple..and if you don't know what it is you want to accomplish..then.. wtfauoa what..the..fuck..are..you..on..about
yes..and one more important point..is that..most never even try it on paper first to prove it works..they just jump straight in and think they can swim..without any lessons what so ever.. whilst a new born baby can instinctively swim.. adults can not..which again proves why even a "baby" can do it this is just another rub at the stupid academic structure we have been stuck with since the 1580 awaking.. which of course is the source of all the silly and idiotic thinking that goes thru most "educated" people's mind..and then add the other stupid "everlasting life" group..i mean..anyone who "can't see" what is wrong..well..in my opinion..deserves "exactly" what they get !!!!!
COT report for those who are into spreadsheet stuff..i am finished with all that stuff..my goal is specific..being..fast order entry for continuous trading..no holding (beyond what is required) what so ever.. i will then risk SOME of the money i make on longer term trades..but not planned for the near future ! https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/financial_lof.htm
any pointers for a good software platform that has everything for fast order entry appreciated..as of now the best i have come across is the IB TWS customizable buttons..but their charts and dom trading is not great..although their volume profile on the dom has been found useful in the past.. there might be some VERY good platforms out there that i have not tried yet..hence why i ask..
I use NT8 and place all my orders on the chart. If I want to place a limit order at a specific level - it takes two clicks. Usually, if I'm looking to go long I will have OCO orders in place with a limit buy and a buy stop. Either will get filled. The stop order is usually to make sure I don't miss the boat if it's a fast reversal or breakout. I can go flat (close all positions) or hit a market order with one click. Under normal market conditions it works fine for me, but it would have been great to be able to place limit orders with one click only like on the DOM. An alternative solution is to have the DOM up additionally to serve that specific purpose, but I need my screen estate, so I don't use the DOM for that. I also use ATM strategies which submit a hard stop and limit order based on fill price, i.e., a stop 10 points below my fill and a limit 5 or 10 points above my fill on a long entry. NT also integrates with IB, but you need a paid license. If you don't want to use IB, you can trade through NT Brokerage (Dorman Capital) which actually is really good.
I wonder if he's aware of the obvious pre-requisite. https://simplerjohn.medium.com/2020-a-recap-of-my-1270-18-2-million-trading-year-faa24a08c65d 2020: A Recap of My 1270%, $18.2 million trading year. ...I had some great trades. And I had some horrible trades. I made a few brutal mistakes. I made money 10 months out of 12, but it wasn’t smooth, and those two down months were doozies. You would think March would have been one of those nasty down months, but it wasn’t. My first losing month visited me in May... ...Sometimes I was in the zone. Other times everything I touched turned to shit. With the year over, I can count on one hand the number of trades I did that were perfect. But when the dust settled, my three shorter-term trading accounts ended at their highs, and I had a record trading year. This is a lesson I’ve had to relearn many times: You can make a lot of money in the markets not being perfect. There is only one goal on which a trader should apply their focus: An upward sloping equity curve. Start the year at the lower left of the screen, and end the year at the upper right... ...I’ve been doing this for nearly 30 years now, and I’ve learned that more knowledge is not more power when it comes to trading. It’s all about probabilities and risk control. And if you are wrong, be wrong fast. Keep it simple and lay down those bricks in the right spot, as if you were building a house or a wall . . . always remembering that stocks rise slowly and fall fast... ...Making money is easy. Keeping it is the game...