Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. M4-1

    M4-1

    well..who says more up or more down before we close..i think down..but if it goes back above the new ref line i will change my mind :)
     
    #7761     Jul 8, 2021
  2. M4-1

    M4-1

    ...

    Screenshot_2021-07-08-19-48-14-406_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png
     
    #7762     Jul 8, 2021
  3. baron193

    baron193

    Most instruments behave differently, currency major are very similar but minors can be very different same for commodities and indices so i prefer to stick with one that i get to know well.
    As for woulda shoulda coulda well it happens sometimes, certainly still happens to me...isn't it the same when you sell at the bottom and then you rescue the trade ? surely a buy woulda been the best option but it was for the sake of us plebs learning something we didn't know....or maybe not.
     
    #7763     Jul 8, 2021
  4. M4-1

    M4-1

    i think the more times you get caught out..the smarter you get..but not if you keep doing the same thing..obviously :)

    i see the micro oil futures is now live..they are really going after all the plebs who have money in the bank getting no interest..

    i wonder if that has anything to do with the current stock market levels :)
     
    #7764     Jul 8, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  5. M4-1

    M4-1

    lets see where this finishes ?

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    #7765     Jul 8, 2021
  6. M4-1

    M4-1

    ...

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    #7766     Jul 8, 2021
  7. Actually, you said it's so easy a child can do it. :)

    I was long prior to the Open today and did not get the best entry, but decided I would hold long since I new the odds were good we'd see a strong move up. So, I was holding long while in the red for the initial 90 minutes, but added a few as price eventually moved in my favour.

    I was tempted to 'add a few' while price hovered above 80, but knew that a full loss with 3 contracts would hurt too much, so I avoided that.

    Ever since I allowed for some inexactitude in my trading and stopped using 'too tight' stops, my trading have improved greatly.

    upload_2021-7-8_22-41-14.png
     
    #7767     Jul 8, 2021
  8. Right. As it is - ES is the only market I ever followed in detail.

    Specifically, how is ES different than any other instrument?

    Are you referring to how it's probably the most traded contract by institutions? Program trading? Arbitrage? Hedging activity? Etc.?

    Or something else...? :)
     
    #7768     Jul 8, 2021
  9. M4-1

    M4-1

    i am just starting to look at the pc setup again to get ready to start trading..boy have i forgotten a lot until i actually sit down and start clicking..

    as per my examples posted..my initial buy and sell breakout levels were actually the reverse..the es does this a lot..it will dip below and pop above the range to take out the tight stop traders..

    what i know is that holding on to losers and adding is not good long term..for..when volatility returns the whipsaws will be just greater..

    my focus now is to just trade what is happening..this will mean the 1 min line chart..i prefer a tick chart and might change my setup to different software..

    i am not married to anything..but a woman..if i feel it is not right then it is not..and it has to be made right..

    you don't mess..with the ES :)

    still a bit to go i must say..but i am in no hurry..as the ES is not going anywhere!
     
    #7769     Jul 8, 2021
  10. M4-1

    M4-1

    the main difference i think is that the auto traders provide the opportunity for those who are not sucked in by the latest fad..such as bid ask vol analysis and vol deltas..

    the fact that the adv is around 2mil and the OI change is only in the thousands..means most of the daily vol is by the auto traders..hence why so many opportunities..

    of course..i think you can't ignore the options market..as having studied the OI levels for nearest expires..they big boys with the real money will drive the ES to where they want it..so they don't lose on the options.. maybe i am wrong..but what i have seen in the past backs up what i believe..

    all that said..it is too much work..hence my approach now to just trade what i see..very short term..like the sample trade in the range today..but being ready for the ding dongs and when the big boys fart :)
     
    #7770     Jul 8, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.