Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Presumably $1400 is not a significant % of your net worth.

I'm not sure how you can be so confident that this trade will eventually make money but I guess, if you're prepared to wait long enough, anything is possible.

Of course, in the mean time, -$1400 could turn into -$2000, -$2500...

 

It will (likely) get down to about 4250 this week, so profit for M3. Of course you are right, he can withstand the temporary draw down and the potential loss. But he "knows" something that is obvious but not so obvious, hence the (apparently) risky trade

 

Are you sure about that?

Remember, there are no experts in the trading game.

 

It's possible to be 'wrong' and still make money. But obviously, for that to happen, you can't risk too much.

If you risk too much, it's just a matter of time before you lose all your chips.

 

Been there, got the T-shirt, and still wearing it.

I put a significant sum into a precious metal investment in 2013. It was about $40 at the time. It started falling pretty much immediately but, instead of cutting my losses, I hung on thinking if I wait long enough it might come good. It hit a low of $2.50 (93% loss) in March last year when everything tanked because of Covid. Currently it's around $9 (78% loss).

It's now a very long term investment.

 

That story or a variation of it is only all too common, I'm afraid.

The other is when you wait to liquidate for a large loss just as the market reverses.

 

Yep, I did that with a previous investment before the precious metal one. In fact, that's probably why I clung on to the PM one. With my luck, I knew that if I bailed out for a big loss it would probably reverse. Of course, as I discovered, there is nothing stopping a big loss from turning into an even bigger loss.

One of the things this thread has made me recognise is that I wasn't investing, I was gambling. I'm still gambling holding on to that PM investment but now there isn't much left to lose.

 

i must stop walking the dogs and gardening and pay more attention to my trading

 

some time ago you might have heard of the VXX ( or similar)..and how overnight it was pulled by the backers..and those who were silly enough to be trading it were left with..well..nothing

an index can never go to zero..or be pulled by the backers

 

well..my €6k which i took out is still under my mattress..and this trade is far from finished yet..

the only way i can lose is if i overtrade..and my losses can way exceed my available capital..but..i learned all about that in the past..so it will never happen me again..

some people never really do learn