Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    I prefer indices rather than FX. For the broker that I use FXCM and their GER30, SPX500 and US30 are all good and have strong moves. The GER30 is based on the DAX index future and is nice for trading UK am. From UK midday onwards either SPX500 based on E-mini S&P500 future or US30 based on E-mini Dow future. They are correlated to some extentand when one twitches the others usually do.
     
    #7341     Jun 7, 2021
    Onra likes this.
  2. I'd say commissions on MES are relatively high compared with ES, but with a good win rate and a lower trading frequency it should be fine.

    If I understand correctly so far, low risk in this thread is defined as both low risk (meaning the reward should at least be a multiple of the risk, i.e., 2:1 or more) and high(er) probability of a win (> 50%).

    Correct?

    Practically speaking, then - what's a typical stop on ES/MES these days?
     
    #7342     Jun 7, 2021
  3. M4-1

    M4-1

    honest reply..and i would say you are not alone..very few actually make any money trading..as..they usually give it back..same as gambling in the casinos..

    i do not trade FX..so i can not comment if the same methodology works..the S&R levels on any chart will be just that..but how the instrument behaves when it approaches these levels can be different..due to the way that people trade the instrument..

    all i know..is that the ES/MES has adequate predictability..thus it is the least risky to trade in my books..which is the only reason i trade it..
     
    #7343     Jun 7, 2021
  4. M4-1

    M4-1

    what if i said the typical stop on the ES prior the recent volatility since covid-19 was 10 points..and now it must be more!!!!
     
    #7344     Jun 7, 2021
  5. M4-1

    M4-1

    other posts..i have no interest in FX or any other instrument apart from Bitcoin..i am not trading bitcoin but am making some money from it.. another days discussion..

    my discussion is about trading the MES..i have thoroughly explained the reasoning behind my decision..if you are trading any other instrument then i do not know how my setup or interpretation of how the ES/MES's predictability can be related to any other instrument..

    a chart is a chart is a chart..but only to a certain extent..as just noted..

    always remember that..

    "you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear"
     
    #7345     Jun 7, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  6. M4-1

    M4-1

    to clarify my meaning of low risk..

    "the trade should go in your favour very quickly after you get filled"

    in other words..TIMING is everything..in both entries and exits..

    i think that stop placements are detrimental to making money trading!!

    the longer you are in the market the longer your money is at risk

    if you decide to play market maker trades..as i do at times..then you MUST be prepared for a large drawdown in relation to the potential profit

    the real money is made in holding winning trades for several days..but again..unless you are WILLING and ABLE to accept the possible resulting drawdowns..and potential LOSSES..then as my old friend RN would say..

    "you might as well be pissing up a rope" !!
     
    #7346     Jun 7, 2021
  7. M4-1

    M4-1

    the pdf..although the author is generally correct in relation to "you might as well be tossing a coin"..he is of course speaking only from his own experiences..and one must always keep that in mind when reading any text!

    in the past i traded FTSE 100 options..selling puts to be specific..with built in risk management..and wait for it..also with available what was called a Golden Hedge!!

    the reality is that the Golden Hedge actually works..but as with all trading..until such time as you have actually done it..you will never understand it..

    so..what happened me..was..back in 2007 i lost in one day what most pleb's would lose in a lifetime of trading..why..simple..because i did not fully understand my in built risk management..and..i panicked to exit the tumbling markets..the FTSE was falling around 300 to 400 points a day!!

    in summary..

    'if only i knew then..what i now know " :)
     
    #7347     Jun 7, 2021
  8. M4-1

    M4-1

    and..the big question that you all seek..

    "is there really and edge that can..and does..make a difference to your trading results"

    in effect..what this means..is..

    "does someone else know something..that if i get to know..will help me make money trading"

    well..what is your answers..based on your experiences to date?
     
    #7348     Jun 7, 2021
  9. M4-1

    M4-1

    this thread..what if the OBVIOUS that NY spoke about..is a real edge..and.. because it is so OBVIOUS is the exact reason why it is NOT SO OBVIOUS..

    could this be a reality?
     
    #7349     Jun 7, 2021
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    #7350     Jun 7, 2021
    Pelt likes this.