Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    just for everybody reading along, correction:
    • assymetric risk associated with options
    • writing an option is associated with a fixed profit (get that premium) and unlimited loss
    • buying an option is associated with fixed loss (pay the premium) and unlimited profit
     
    #6801     Dec 10, 2020
  2. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    I looked it up:
    • Montaigne was an early and important french contributor to the enlightment age.
    • 1580 refers to "The Essais", the main work of Montaigne, covering 107 different themes. As I got the gut feeling that the whole of it is worth reading, is their any specific essaie you can recommend?
    • A takeaway that caught my eye while reading about him was that "human capacity is naturally inhibited in grasping reality in its fullness or with certainty" - perfectly matches the topic of this thread ;)
     
    #6802     Dec 10, 2020
  3. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    Well, I have to write that down - when coming to books tipps ;)

    I (really proud of myself) read it and can recommend it: The Divine Comedy by Dante (1320)

    Warp up: Man travels through hell to find his (dead) girlfriend - think it pretty much sums it up - the journey while trying to be a successfull trader :D
     
    #6803     Dec 10, 2020
  4. M4-1

    M4-1

    well..the most famous essay of course :)

    Of the Education of Children

    read the very last paragraph first..then come back and say what is the most important point that Montaigne makes in this letter to Madame de Foix

    http://hs.umt.edu/ghr/documents/152MontaigneEducationofChildren.pdf
     
    #6804     Dec 10, 2020
  5. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    Not the easiest thing, so I'll try to make the best out of it:
    • in regard to the last paragraph, the most important thing is, to have appetite and interest [in learning] - lets say fun or devotion - otherwise, he states, there will only be a bunch of book-laded asses [pupils]
     
    #6805     Dec 10, 2020
  6. Vindago

    Vindago

    Like my primary school teacher used to say: "school should teach pupils to learn, to be curious about the world and passionate to learn about it" this remained with me all my life. I was never much of diligent student, I would be very good in subjects that interested me and learn just enough on the other subjects. But then, with time, the interests shifted sometimes and I came to be passionate about things I hated at school, how curious:D
     
    #6806     Dec 10, 2020
  7. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    okay, before running around like a squirrel under the Christmas Tree and start making assumptions and jumping to conclusions I start with describing:
    • 1M chart ES Mini Future, 7 to 8 Dec
    • Volume on the x axis
    • 3 lines
      • upper line und lower line mark the extremes of the period
      • middle line - no idea, what could it be?
      • are these historical reference lines? the lines do not start at a date, like the boxes do. But when I look at them at a higher time frame, there is no reference. So for now, upper line and middle seem to be correlated with highs and lows - but I can't travel back in time, so why the heck are these lines all over that chart. They must have any meaning. But which one?
    • 3 areas / boxes
      • boxes start of different times, no logic or rule obvious for me, why they start, exlusion principle:
        • they dont start at the same time
        • they dont have the same range
        • they dont have the same location (turning point, high, low or other)
        • they dont show the same action (correction, trend reversal or other) after their starting point
      • So, what do they have in common?
      • Are they related to DOM?

     
    #6807     Dec 10, 2020
  8. M4-1

    M4-1

    VO..i think FV needs something !

    VO has file..make FV smile
    it one of kind..to open mind
    not like the most..with full of boast
    the truth so real..will make you squeal

    so ask VO..for him to show
    and keep it quiet..as it not shite
    when read it keep..your mind so deep
    do think of say.. what's in essay :)

    you see FV..all not what be
    for fools galore..do naught but roar
    the facts are true..for me and you
    so open mind..be one of kind !!!!

    M3
     
    #6808     Dec 10, 2020
  9. M4-1

    M4-1

    jesus..you have better start reading quickly..what the hell are you muttering about :)

    forget about DOM and all that shite..the only time you look at that is just before you place a trade..and just before you exit a trade..call it fine tuning your order!

    ANYTHING you add to a chart is there as a guideline..that is all..the human brain is no different to a computer chip..just zillions of times smaller.. everything depends on charges..positive and negative charges..this is exactly the reason why a bird can fly across a vast ocean and return to the exact spot that he left from..think about that..amazing..and all because of a charge so small..you would probably need an electron microscope to see it !

    by having the coloured boxes on your chart..you are creating a charge in your brain..simple..factual.. scientific..and..real!

    on the other hand..look at the DOM..chaos..what do you expect your brain to do :)
     
    #6809     Dec 10, 2020
  10. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    when I write down "agreed" it means for me that I agree with the conclusions as they sound coherent to me:
    • Agreed on plebs at the options market (first account I blew up 20 years ago =)
      • market maker has to cover his ass, while he is obliged to write options
      • he can't by an option for coverage, as I understood it, because the liquidity in the option market is too low
      • instead he covers his postion in futures market, because there he can find enough liquidity to do so#
    • The Open Interest Put/Call ratio of the Option Market
      • as we learned, these postions are not closed, they are open
      • as an assumption, in that option market, there are more option buyer then underwriter
      • so, in that theory, if the option contract is open it has to be covered by the Market Maker to save his position - to keep it simple: plebs go Long (Call/Put) and the Market Maker goes Short (Put/Call)
      • So the Open Interest consits of Puts and Calls; the Market Maker has to cover these positions - but how exactly:
        "To cover the risk of a short call position, at any time prior to the options expiration, a trader can buy a futures contract to deliver to the call owner if the short call is exercised. Owning the futures contract to deliver into the call means that the assignment risk is covered; hence the phrase covered call."
      • That means, in this situation, the Money Maker buys 2 times more Puts at the Future Market which is SELLING futures in releation to BUYING futures to cover his Call underwriting.
    • Above it is stated, that the Money Makers try to let the price be stable, that they won't get bitten by a drop in prices. Why don't they just cover on the futures market? Isn't there enough liquidity? Do they wait for an increase in price to cover these Puts?
    questions about questions ...
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2020
    #6810     Dec 10, 2020