Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    here is my answer. My source is CME website, unfortunately the data of 30.11. wasn't available anymore - but i "guess" the percentage on that day (30.11.) was lower than the following day (01.12.)

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    #6771     Dec 8, 2020
  2. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    If have no clue if + 60,000 contracts of OI is only a slight increase or a high increase. Lets assume it is a slight increase, but volume is running high. I would assume, that market participants don't trust the current price level and therefore close their positions again at the same day.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2020
    #6772     Dec 8, 2020
  3. fairvalue

    fairvalue

    Is there a question? Don't want to miss it :) I am listening carefully ...
     
    #6773     Dec 8, 2020
  4. M4-1

    M4-1

    if you were on the CME website did you miss the most important bit of information ?
     
    #6774     Dec 8, 2020
  5. M4-1

    M4-1


    if + 60,000 is change in OI and 1,400,000 are traded..then surely that means that 1,340,000 contracts were opened and closed in the same day..when i went to school we were taught to do these sums in our heads.. nowadays..if you ask an honours maths student that simple question..they will go for the calculator..wtf..and people wonder what is wrong with the world today..ohh..right..trading..i forgot about that for a moment..where were we :)
     
    #6775     Dec 8, 2020
  6. Vindago

    Vindago

    "if + 60,000 is change in OI and 1,400,000 are traded..then surely that means that 1,340,000 contracts were opened and closed in the same day"

    That's not exactly right, is it? the only information we get is that today there are +60K contract still open at the end of the day compared to yesterday, it tells us nothing about what happened today...

    let's give some examples:

    case 1: yesterday there were no open contracts at the end of the day, today 670K were opened and 670K closed during the day, 60K were opened and not closed.
    -->Volume for the day= 1,400,000, outstanding contracts at day end is 60K more than yesterday

    Case 2: yesterday there were 500K open contracts at the end of the day, today these 500K contract were all closed, then other 560K were opened and not closed, 170K contracts were opened and then closed throughout the day.
    -->Volume for the day= 1,400,000, outstanding contracts at day end is 60K more than yesterday.

    perception is a bitch...

    let me know if my logic is faulty...
     
    #6776     Dec 8, 2020
  7. M4-1

    M4-1

    of course there is a question..how important the answer is in relation to short term trading is debatable..yet..if nothing else..very interesting !

    if i decide to sell 1 ES naked put..provided my broker and account size allows same..then if the ES rises i make money..but it is limited to the premium i have received for selling the put..if the ES falls below the strike price..then i lose money for every tick that is below the strike minus the premium

    if i buy the put..i am on the other end..simple..this time it is unlimited gain if market falls..sweet fuk all if market rises..i LOSE premium PAID if the ES futures is near the strike price at expiration..feck..now we have that stupid time = money thing back again :)

    so..how the hell can we make something out of all this OI and volume data..and..does it really matter in relation to what is happening on the charts !!!
     
    #6777     Dec 8, 2020
  8. M4-1

    M4-1

    whoaaaaa..i never said i was right..or wrong.. remember :)

    look at what i asked..if the change in OI is +60,000 and the Vol traded is 1,400,000..then surely this means that 1,340,000 contracts were opened and closed !

    the previous days OI is say 2,400,000..so the new OI is 2,460,000..where are the 1,400,000 contracts gone ?
     
    #6778     Dec 8, 2020
  9. M4-1

    M4-1

    let's keep an eye on what's happening..i am not trading here..it is too risky at the moment..time to hold on to the last 9 or 10 winners i had..i am not giving my money back to some gobshite :)

    Screenshot_2020-12-08-20-43-23-456_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png
     
    #6779     Dec 8, 2020
  10. M4-1

    M4-1

    hmm..so they have increased the DOM levels for the ES..but not for the MES..not that it matters anway !

    Screenshot_2020-12-08-20-49-06-886_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png Screenshot_2020-12-08-20-49-25-606_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png
     
    #6780     Dec 8, 2020