Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    You are fantastic if you only have one way to stop you from losing more than you make. I have countless way to lose more than I make, but only a couple of ways to make money trading.:(

    Happy holiday to you and wish you a profitable 2018.
     
    #6411     Dec 17, 2017
  2. It is very obvious to all
    You are but another lost soul

    A global plethora of alias, to be sure
    While newbs may think they speak to blokes and mates, it's simply ET's fuhrer
     
    #6412     Dec 17, 2017
  3. polaris

    polaris

    Do you believe in fairies, Santa Claus, auction market theory...?
     
    #6413     Dec 18, 2017
  4. Vindago

    Vindago

    Happy holidays to you too and profitable new year!

    I find it easier to make money than to keep them, I can average 90% win rate, the problem is with keeping them as the 10% come from black swans and you know what that could do to an account...

    so when I say that there is only one way for me to avoid losing more than I make I mean that I need to do what I know I have to do, being that exiting a trade that is not doing what I was expecting, whether I am losing money or I am making money, and sometimes reverse it.

    in theory this is easy but in practice it is the hardest thing and that is why that is exactly where I am finally putting my energy.
     
    #6414     Dec 18, 2017
  5. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    what you do seek
    takes more than week
    as most are fools
    use silly tools

    then idiots arrive
    who clearly strive
    but talk not slow
    as if they know :)

    the world abound
    with dopes all round
    they think a post
    can make them boast

    but little know
    words always show
    a fool so true
    not ME..or YOU :)
     
    #6415     Dec 21, 2017
    Vindago likes this.
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Such high win rate implied you wrote OTM options. Convexity is your enemy and can kill you if you are not careful. Lower win rate but higher expectancy may be a better way to go?

    From a chart newbie: It is written in charts, some times, some times not?

    Regards,
     
    #6416     Dec 21, 2017
  7. Vindago

    Vindago

    I have never traded Options, honestly I have never even bothered to understand how they work.

    the High win rate is easy enough to achieve as price comes back most of the time in minutes, hours, days or months, the problem is that it comes with a cost, Opportunity cost and draw down cost.

    So now, finally, after knowing in my hart of harts for a long time that the key to succeed in trading in the long term is to be able to do what needs to be done (following the process and not the money) I am focusing on hard wiring this into my F..ing brain!
     
    #6417     Dec 22, 2017
  8. Vindago

    Vindago

    I am even thinking about removing any element that indicates how much I am making/losing on a trade so that I can keep the focus on what is happening on the chart and not on how much I am winning/losing on the trade.
     
    #6418     Dec 22, 2017
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Wow, I didn't realize there are other ways to generate very high win rate. In all my years of trading equities, I have not been able to generate decent win rate, unless of course I buy and hold for more than a decade, even then, there were many losers: GE, IBM....

    More power to you if you figured out how to get the movements correct 90% of the time. What puzzles me is how can the 10% can kill you? In options, it is obvious because of convexity. In equity? Unless you use leverage?

    Happy holiday to you.
     
    #6419     Dec 23, 2017
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    In that case can't you just put a hard stop when you trade so you can easily avoid the black swan for the 10%?
     
    #6420     Dec 23, 2017