Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. slugar

    slugar

    What would that be?
     
    #6241     Sep 25, 2017
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    OK, so this is the results for a two month period. What about prior to this?
     
    #6242     Sep 25, 2017
  3. sss12

    sss12

    With a 69-1 win loss ratio and a 8-12% ROI on each trade averaging 35 trades per month that must be some track record.
     
    #6243     Sep 25, 2017
    ironchef likes this.
  4. Ed48

    Ed48

    Wow, so you are talking around 700% total profit (non-compounded) in two months, and without using any leverage. That is nothing short of breath taking.

    I'm guessing the non-margin/long-only, means you are trading stocks? Must be some volatile ones to score 45% on a single short-term trade.

    By the way, if you compounded 70 wins at 8%, you could turn $10,000 into over $2 million.

    1.08^70*$10,000 = $2,186,064
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
    #6244     Sep 27, 2017
  5. Aj2014

    Aj2014

    lol
     
    #6245     Sep 27, 2017
  6. Pelt

    Pelt

    No it is not. If you make 8% on a trade(as in the trade from its open till your closing it moved 8%), and you risk 2% of your INITIAL bankroll, you have grown your account by 0.16%.

    If you do that 30 times, as an example if you could do this once per day, you will have grown your account 4.8%. This is not amazing.

    I am not talking about growing your account by 8% on a trade(I have never even come close to such a number, not even once), to do that you would have to risk 100% of your bankroll. Should the worst happen, you will lose 100% of your money. Would you go all-in on one trade? Next, if you risk 100% of your bankroll, you can only enter one trade at a time.

    There is a reason I mentioned non-leveraged and non-margin.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
    #6246     Sep 27, 2017
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    0.16% a day = ~37% per year. 4.8% per day ~ 118,0918% per year. Both extremely amazing.

    So, with a $1000 total account to start, at the end of the year will be worth $1,180,918. Quite amazing!
     
    #6247     Sep 27, 2017
  8. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    The only thing that is amazing..is how stupid people can really be :)

    to make it more
    requires good score
    this talk of gain
    is all in vain

    it starts this way
    the price will sway
    until it small
    no need be tall

    but few can see
    what really be
    as day to night
    it mostly shite

    an open mind
    not make you blind
    abundance great
    to those who wait

    to see it clear
    one has to steer
    thru ice so dense
    use common sense :)
     
    #6248     Sep 27, 2017
  9. jsmacksem

    jsmacksem

    Common sense though many might have,

    Won't help a poor soul trade good or bad.

    The poems that work cut to the heart,

    Like price in a simple small box it might make you fart.

    The shock of simple many can't see,

    Like blades of grass or forest from trees.

    Price moves around with something behind it,

    If SCALPER told US we just might heed it.

    But as good things go I'm hoping this ends,

    With an answer or two that might get rid of these friends.

    The journey is rough for most if not all,

    So enjoy the process and even the falls.

    You can love unconditional with no return,

    But love price and well surely burn.

    The answers you seek are simply inside,

    Admittedly so simple they just can't hide..

    Unless it is ego,

    Then yes let him go.

    Unless one is humble,

    Then yes up he go.

    To end a rhyme in conspicuous manner,

    The journey continues and so must the banter.
     
    #6249     Sep 27, 2017
  10. Pelt

    Pelt

    If you can grow that much per day, sure you could eventually have some nice coin built up. But, there will come a time where you can't just easily move your millions through certain VOLATILE instruments.

    I too like to play around with the compounding formulas, to just dream about insane profits... but they are not really realistic. They are almost pointless to think about imo. Real world trading probably just isn't going to work out for most of us that way. When I see one of those compounded, theoretical, billion dollar amounts, its like "LOL!!! ;) " There are just too many overlapping trades, which you are in for various amounts of time, varying amounts of ROI, and varying SIZE, that make real-world trading and compounding difficult, and managing your bankroll tougher.

    Some of the things I've realized recently, I see where I've been going wrong trying to trade futures for years... I simply don't have the money for it.

    Just a note, the example I used with 2% gain, showing what you'd actually accrue after 30 trades... those are not my numbers. I was just using a theoretical example b/c it seems like guys like that theoretical stuff? My numbers are way better than that luckily(for now). I was just trying to explain how to calculate your Profit/Loss, which is something I thought EVERYBODY already knew how to do? Maybe the obvious pre-requisite is to know how to calculate your P/L... LOL. Like the distinction between 10 to 15, and 15 to 10.
     
    #6250     Sep 27, 2017