Listening to Reminiscences audio book while on a road trip and cant help but draw similarities between this thread and some of what ol' Jesse was saying. Too bad I cant dedicate my full time to trading at the moment but come winter time, I will be giving it another serious shot.
How did Jesse die! You do not need to trade full time..in fact..the odds are far better if you do not..as you have less chance of giving back the money you will make! For now..pick any market..gold..oil (be careful with this one!)..AAPL..or even EUR.USD ( be careful with this one also !) Decide how you want to risk some money..trade underlying or options on underlying. If you pick options..you need to do a lot of extra work..but it can be worth it with respect to minimizing your losses! If you do not..or can not..prepare a detailed plan..have the ability to start your plan..adjust it as required..and learn as you progress..then..do not bother risking any of your money..as..you will more than likely lose a good bit! At least 90% of your success will be dependent on your plan and how serious you are about carrying it out..the other 10% can not be avoided..as we are all human..just make sure you do not reverse the percentages..like most do
I dunno if I know what the obvious is yet, but in the past two months or so, I have taken just shy of 70 trades, and I've only had ONE loser, which was really an accounting mistake on my part. Something else, there was a saying that used to annoy me to no end. And that is when people would say something like, "I don't predict what happens, I only react." Well... I don't really feel that way anymore after realizing what it is that I have been doing. Even though the above quote is used often, and I have a different understanding of it now than I did months ago, I still think MOST people that say it have no clue what it really means. But I am sure just a few mention it and understand it in a different way.
I'm trading a non-margin account, non-leveraged instruments, and I am only buying. Expectancy, overall I dunno? My lowest gain was ~2.75%. That loss I took was about 14%. My biggest was something like 45%. On average though, it's probably about 8-10% per trade. Most of them seem to be right in the 8-12% ROI. I sometimes get 15+%, but those are near the upper end of the distribution.
It is very hard to try and predict what might happen..and it gets harder as time ticks by! Prediction is probably a wrong word..as you mentioned..it might be better to say "opinion"! Opinions can be formed in many different ways..and from many different data..but if you hold on to your opinion..when it is clear that you better lose it real quick..then..need I say any more Keep it up..you are doing very well..but if you do not know why..then be careful..as you might be forming some bad habits that might cost you big some day..but only you know best!