Here is what I did in Feb 2017: Look at 10 year SPY, from Feb 2007 to Feb 2017, every day recorded open, high, low and close. Bought 100 shares in three different scenarios: bought on open every day and sold on close at the end of everyday; bought on open on the first of every month and sold on close at the end of every month; same for once a year and compared to buy and hold. Here is the outcome: These were without commissions. If you factored in commissions and bid/ask spread, trading 1/day would result in a loss, the others were all profitable. This is almost the same as throwing darts (randomly buy and sell) but because of the upward bias of SPY over the 10 years, all trades were profitable without commissions. I started day trading way back but did the same test back in 2003, after that never day traded again.
The point is.. picking the right direction..or prediction..really has very little to do with consistent profits..they come from your ability to adapt to ever changing situations..and one way to get good at adapting..is to get good at chart reading! I would say that daytrading is ok once you have your plan well thought out..if you are prone to not being able to take a loss..like Mr eug described in his honest post..then you will be parted from your money very quickly.
Well..it is far from easy for me actually..in fact..as mentioned..some times I just walk away..might be for months on end..as I know what will happen if I don't! It is far more important to have a clear head and no high notions.. direction is really irrelevant..it is your silly ways of thinking that cost you the big money..and that I know from experience. I explained to someone in detail..what I thought was the best way to daytrade..even showed them some live trades..do you think they could do it..no way..and the same goes for most who try..it takes a lot of losing and winning trades before it finally sinks in..why do you think I walk away at times
On the other hand, according to the OP... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-29#post-2355717 "Trade entry is the most important thing ever, but this should be "obvious" to even a child, as if you get it wrong from the start, the odds are stacked way against you"
I don't know what you mean by location. Have a think about what the OP meant by good and bad entry. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-25#post-2350739
Based on my own trading outcome, I actually agree with you and this statement. The thing I am trying to figure out is how to select a good entry. Watching TA and charts did not seem to help. As an example, one chart I have been watching is TEVA. I couldn't find any warning from watching the charts or from all the TA that the stock would drop 25% in one day? Maybe someone can do a post-hoc analysis and point it out to me. Thanks.
TA can't, and it's not meant to, tell you if a stock is going to drop xx% the next day. The stock was obviously in a downtrend. The first indication of a continuation of the downtrend came with the end of the 6/01 to 7/03 corrective move. Now, explaining the point of entry that you are looking for to short in this case would open up a can of worms by having to explain the basics of price movement . I don't know what type of TA you were using to determine an entry point. You might care to explain this, as if it was some way out on the limb offshoot of TA, that may be what's causing your difficulty .
It dropped another 13% yesterday. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/teva/s...dy=volume&comparison=off&index=&drilldown=off It will be interesting to see what it does next.