I admit, the way I trade I don't know my max drawdown. If 2008 was a guide, it was very painful with obscene drawdown. Something are counter intuitive, for example, after reading globalarbtrater's blog, I went and researched optimization of return and for the first time realized that my 100% equity bet did not optimized max returns, that for me, adding a percentage of fixed income actually enhanced it. Now I am also implementing Kelly in my trade sizing.... So, yes, thank to all of you, I am managing risks a little better now. Now if only I can read charts like the rest of you. Thanks and best to all of you.
Let autocorrelation lead the way! (yes, "surf's up" - not marketsurfer, but you need to adjust charts properly in order to see that, or step 5-10 meters away) 1. For detailed chart reading it may help to have some context to visually assist and aide. What is the latest dominant development within this chart and can its pace(s) (slope) be found? These annotations are fixed - no translation required (What we know that we know). More annotations may help provide context and background, though do require translation and reference point: 2. Markets will go wherever they are pushed or pulled. What is moving price? 3. For analysis to work in any timeframe, it cannot rely on fixed parameters or logic. What must it rely on?
There is a much "simple" way The danger of "looking" at too much "stuff" is inability to act. The best way..is the way that allows you react to what is happening now..but in a framework that allows you to quantify your risk..in such a way..that your winning trades will make more money than your losing trades. This framework can be achieved by observation..and..bar charts tend to best suited for this approach. So..the big question is..why can one person "see" things that others can not see! The answer is "obvious"..but the soultion is far from easy..as the "seeing" is the easy bit
No..but it is a very good explanation..and should point one in the direction of what they should be looking for when looking at a chart..or the DOM! Like I said..many times previously..standard text book stuff is really of no value..if it was.. everyone would make money trading..which is of course not the case! Next time you look at a chart..and "see" an opportunity to enter a trade..do this.. Wait one bar of whatever timeframe you are using..then see if the trade is as you thought it would be..if it is..then enter and see what happens..if not..consider trading the opposite direction..but wait again one bar
B/c it has not been pointed out to them. Most people have never noticed the arrow in the Fedex logo. But once it is 'pointed' out, you will NEVER think about the image in the logo the same way. You're visual perception of that image is forever changed.