-eug, it's not for me or anyone else to determine where you find value. We each make our own path but it's important to view things in this space with a critical eye...not negative, critical.
I look at everything with an open mind and experiment on demo. No harm no foul as far as I can tell. Personally I quite enjoy this thread and comments from Mr.Scalper, and op from way back when. I don't understand what all the negativity is about. Is it a waste of time? maybe but so is a ton of other things out there. At least this thread is entertaining, creative and gets you thinking.
The 3 stooges haven't a clue about trading..all you need do is read some of their posts As I keep saying..it does not matter one little bit..who I am..where I am..what I make..what I lose..the only thing that should concern you..is if what I say makes sense in relation to making money..if it does..then use it..if it doesn't..then just move on! I could write a book about how many idiots are out there..who think they know something of real value..when..all they really have stumbled across is regurgitated rubbish..it is always the "same old story" I have only read posts from one person here that has a real clue about trading..but for some reason he seems to have disappeared..I wonder why..well..I actually know why
Mr eug..if I were to ask you to sum up..in a short few words..what you now think is the best way to risk your hard earned money in the markets..and a brief "why" you think this way is the best?
It is called correlation! If you go back on AAPL chart you will see there are several times when it was not in correlation with the SP500..so just be aware of same..as..the individual stock price is always the most important thing to watch when trading.. especially short term trading! You are really an investor..not a trader..you do not know what your max exposure is in the event of a major sudden move down in the indices..this is not good..as you are not managing your risk properly.. unless of course you forgot to tell us about your spread trades and hedge positions? I once thought I could not lose..I had so many winners in a row.. with not one single losing trade..I thought I really had it sussed! You know what happened next..knocked me out of trading for over 6 months..it took me that length of time to get my confidence back..and accept that I had been nothing but an idiot playing with fire!! If you do not fully understand what you are doing..then how can you expect to know what to do when the shit hits the fan..as it will again..that is for sure..might be 1 week..1 month..or even 1 year or more..but one thing is for sure..and that is..it will happen..as sure as night turns to day! Fail to plan..Plan will fail !
To answer your question: The best way to make money is to place your bets at a time and place where there will be a reaction that will instantly let you know if you are right or wrong. If wrong you can reverse or stop out. To know where the time and place is you must be able to read a chart and understand what is going on with levels and progression. The criteria for entry hit me like a eureka moment last night while watching after hours action in the middle of the night (slow motion trading) and thinking about the waterfall and reference point. I've also noticed the CL DOM has a very distinct clue right before those Algo explosions happen in regular trading hours...as we approach the "reference point" The answer to why is because that is what I see happening in the market day after day. I just couldn't figure out where to enter and where to stop out if wrong. The reason I lose is because I am stubborn and struggle with acting on what I see rather than what I think should happen. It will take a lot of work but it will be all worth it. On another note: I took a big loss today holding a losing trade in CL way past the initial stop out... held it overnight too. Its really embarrassing to even admit it, biggest loss of my trading career so far. My mind just starts playing tricks on me trying to convince me to stay in. I freeze and cant pull the trigger on the stop out, lucky I had a small account which didn't let me average down otherwise the damage would have been way worst. Really humbling experience. This was an expensive lesson for a mistake that will not be repeated!!! Making these mistakes on simulator with zero consequences just re-enforces this bad behavior. No more sim trading from now on. Cold hard lessons through real live trading. The money is just a number on the screen hard to attach real value to it until its gone.
Remember that honestly is always the best policy If that is what you can relate to..and it works for you..then it is just a matter of "doing it"! However, you must always give a trade some leeway..the idiots who try to trade the futures markets with a few ticks stop..well..are clueless! You can not complete against multi million dollar auto trading systems.. nor should you ever want to! Your CL loss.. therein lies the main reason why you lose money..you MUST let the market tell you when to get in..and get out..win or lose..note that if you get out the market can easily tell you to get back in very quickly..it is just a matter of staying focused and not getting sucked into every little up and down move you see..you must have rules.. otherwise you are doomed to failure! After a while the "big picture" becomes obvious..oh yes..the gold trade..when you execute below the "sell below" level..this does in no way mean you stay short till X-Mas..you always trade what you see..not what you think..and the more times you have winning and losing trades..the more you will "see". It really is mostly common sense..which is "obviously" not that common