Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    I take it you meant 2440?

    Why do you think we go higher next to test 2450, whilst we are currently below 2440?
     
    #5751     Jun 26, 2017
  2. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    OOPS yeah 2440... to me that is what it looks like... either we test 2450 and break it... or what I feel stronger about, is if we break down thru support at 2430, then we go test 2413 which was support around june 6
     
    #5752     Jun 26, 2017
  3. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    Fair points!

    What if we draw the lines differently..will it matter?

    upload_2017-6-26_18-20-43.png
     
    #5753     Jun 26, 2017
  4. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    I do not think so... and I would love to see us break thru that 2428 support, I love the shorts!
     
    #5754     Jun 26, 2017
  5. _eug_

    _eug_

    Your chart pretty much looks like mine plus or minus a few points on the levels. Anyway I see that we are in a trading range. With the bottom at about 2417 which was coincidentally the top of the trading range from May 24 to June 1st. The top of the trading range was 2443 but was broken out of on last Monday and it was expended to 2450. After setting that high we sold off and made a trading range within the trading range which was actually pretty easy to trade. Buy 2428 -2430 and sell 2439 - 2440. Today we opened up above the range and traded towards 2443 which was the top before the breakout last monday. I thought this level would hold so I went short there. There was a small sell off there but not enough to stop the bulls and I got stopped out for a small loss. Then we traded up to the HOD and sold off from there down to 2443. I went long there expecting resistance to turn into support. It did for a few points move but I was expecting prices to trade up to 2450 which was the next level for selling. This did not happen and I got stopped out. My next play to watch the 2440 area and see what happens there. We broke out traded down and came back up and I went short on the retest around lunch time. I sat through all the chop with a pretty wide stop because lunch time has chop when it trades at levels and took profits a minute before the day closed. I was actually expecting to trade all the way down to 2430.
     
    #5755     Jun 26, 2017
  6. _eug_

    _eug_

    Here is the CL chart which I started studying just recently. The hourly for the least month looks pretty easy to trade too. I mean ye its hindsight but you had this happen 5 times in a row!

    CL for last month.jpg
     
    #5756     Jun 26, 2017
  7. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    Hindsight is always easy!

    The problem with thinking too much is that it can divert your attention and cause you to miss out on some good opportunities.

    In order to act on an opportunity..one must be in the right place..at the right time!

    One can also be in the wrong place at the wrong time!!

    upload_2017-6-26_19-10-15.png
     
    #5757     Jun 26, 2017
  8. Jdesey

    Jdesey

    you said it.... in hindsight... the problemo is how do you know those levels are resistance and support... I think you draw the lines diagonal thru the highs and lows you can see a very distinct channell, which would say that the current price is another sell opportunity, see my blue lines

    Capture.PNG
     
    #5758     Jun 26, 2017
  9. MrScalper

    MrScalper

    You are familiar with The DaVinci Code?

    Have a think about this one!!!

    upload_2017-6-26_19-20-17.png
     
    #5759     Jun 26, 2017
  10. _eug_

    _eug_

    I dont really get channels. Lets draw on the CL chart even with hind sight.

    Here is the channel connecting the first high and lower high and a parallel one under. We can keep drawing channels I guess but I just dont see the value. I can Identify support as the level at which price stopped going down and started moving up. Then wait for this support level to be broken and sell it once we come back for the re-test. There is no guessing here because its obvious where price stopped going down. Where is with channels you have to guess which peaks to connect.

    CL Channel.jpg
     
    #5760     Jun 26, 2017