Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    History repeats itself every day!

    J_S
     
    #5091     Feb 25, 2016
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Z4, in relation to live trades, sure if I done that then you might work it out:D

    Anyway, if you traded in exchange, then you should associate with this chart, and see the significance of it over other charts, or maybe I assume incorrectly?

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-25-16 at 06.26 PM.PNG
     
    #5092     Feb 25, 2016
  3. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    Well a little finger could point out something obvious, but what is obvious to me may not be so clear to others and perhaps it isn't what you intended anyway, so its best not for me to say, not wishing to interfere.

    Regards.
     
    #5093     Feb 26, 2016
  4. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Someone recently asked me did I know of any charting software that would allow you to draw ovals on a chart, and I was wondering why he asked me!

    Do you think he was looking for T.G.G:D

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-26-16 at 08.15 PM.PNG
     
    #5094     Feb 26, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I am in the process of cutting out all the clutter completely, and trading with just one chart.

    There are a few reasons why, which are personal.

    Seen as I have always been an advocate of multiple time frame analysis, this is a major shift for me, but I am confident that it will work out OK, once I stick to the rules of the game and just trade when I consider to be the best time.

    Not referencing any previous levels requires a different way of trading, and I am confident that I have it worked out, as I have been working on it in my head continuously since last June, running over all the previous ways I used to trade, and extracting the most relative bits in relation to one chart trading.

    Over the past few months I have been testing numerous layouts with TWS and MT (MedvedTrader), and have finally come to the conclusion that MT is the best, as the chart is far more customizable and has some key features that TWS charts do not have, which I consider to be very important for the type of trading I will be doing.

    For this new type of trading I will be reverting back to good old stock trading, and avoiding ES and NQ, for obvious reasons!

    From now on I will only be using MT for all stock trading, but will continue to use TWS for some option trades on ES and CL, which I plan on cutting out completely once the stock trading kicks off.

    J_S
     
    #5095     Feb 26, 2016
  6. Vindago

    Vindago

    HI JS, not the Oval an not the ones you drew but if you remember the CONTROL PDF from NY the Orientation icon explain it all... explains why I like the idea of being able to draw curves on a chart (Parables and Hyperboles).

    VO
     
    #5096     Feb 27, 2016
  7. Redneck

    Redneck

    KISS is always good

    Oversimplifying to the point of losing the map to the minefield - be cautious of that

    Looking forward to seeing the results


    RN
     
    #5097     Feb 27, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Yes, and I have given this some serious thought, and testing.

    The conclusion I have come to, is that, it all depends on your objective, as in, how much you want to try and make for the day, and how much time you want to spend watching the market.

    As the amount you make is relative to the amount you have, % wise, then the main thing becomes how much time you want to spend, or, can spend, as it is no good looking at trading for the full trading period if that is not possible, for whatever reasons.

    I have set my timeframe at 09:30 to 11:00, with no premarket scanning, as focus will be just one instrument - one chart..one instrument.

    The only other thing I will be watching is the change in ES, as in + or - amount from previous close, and from the open.

    I have taken all of my experiences, good and bad, got rid of everything that I consider to be of no real value, and focused on what I believe to be the most consistent method for trading this time period.

    It can not get much simpler than this, and, I know once I do what I need to do, regardless of outcome, I will make money, as experience has shown that there is sufficient volatility during this period to allow one to make money, while having losing and winning trades.

    Of course I am fully aware of how major S&R levels affect current price, but I am also aware of subtle changes in chart formations that can mean a low risk entry has just presented itself, so, instead of looking at the map, I have got out the metal detector:)

    It will prob be some time before full time resumes, as in each and every day, but for now, all of my focus will be on the one chart..one instrument, so no more posts in relation to MTF and SPX OI, and whatever else I was wasting my time on.

    I consider this the final mile, and the finish line is in sight.

    It has taken me a while to get my head back to where I needed it to be, and the many mad posts were required, as my rantings and ravings have actually allowed me to see my errors, and how to correct them.

    You can always act the fool, but must never become one:D

    J_S
     
    #5098     Feb 27, 2016
  9. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    VO, curves, lines, boxes, and whatever else you decide to use on your charts, they are all but aids to assist with making a decision as to when to enter, and when to exit.

    We all know there is no "magical" answer, or indicator, but there is definitely certain ways to trade that are better than others, and what makes one way better than another, is how consistent it is at getting you in and out of the market with low risk to your money, meaning, when you get filled, how soon the price moves in your favour, and once filled, how good it is at keeping you in the trade to maximise your profit, so that you do not close out too early and leave too much on the table.

    However, it is always better to be safe than sorry, so I am never afraid to take a profit, and, as re-entering is but a click away, all it means is a few cents lost plus another commission, which, in the overall context of things, are, irrelevant.

    Remember all the hype talk about Grey1 on T2W, and how he consistently made nice money, well, I believe Gery1 made most of his money by entering when momentum started, getting out when momentum stalled, and then re-entering when momentum resumed, in the direction of momentum of course. Nothing magical or mystical, just plain old auto trading using momentum indicators!

    We should never be concerned with what any other person has, or does, but we should be very concerned with what we have, and what we do, individually!

    J_S
     
    #5099     Feb 27, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  10. Redneck

    Redneck

    Once one understands price..., mkt.., and trading structure - getting there becomes very academic

    RN
     
    #5100     Feb 27, 2016