Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    I did see that programme.

    In the UK there are some schemes to remove some road markings as they are thought to make driving more dangerous even though they were originally placed with the intention to make driving safer. Seems to me that there is a parallel to various trading methods that many use.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35480736

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    #5061     Feb 20, 2016
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Have a read of this.

    I know I said you must feel no fear, as in scared money never wins, but that must be accompanied by strict risk control at all times, else you will be playing from decks A&B (bad decks), instead of decks C&D (good decks)...read pdf!

    We should all do whatever is required to stop losing TOO MUCH money, for, unless you stop having big losers, you will never win at the game.

    It really is common sense, but as you will see from pdf, common sense can just go out the window, and unless you had an injury to your brain, in which case you are unfortunate, then if you still continue to risk too much, well, you are either as thick as 2 planks put together, or just not able to think correctly, both of which can be easily resolved by simple commitment and focusing on what really matters.

    Happy reading!

    J_S
     
    #5062     Feb 20, 2016
  3. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I was doing a bit of Excel research online, and came across this.

    Do not believe in this stuff, but lets keep an eye on March 1 and see if anything major happens after that date :rolleyes:

    In case you have not noticed, there are 9 years between the cycles, and as this chart was done in 1996, it obviously did not have post 1996 crises marked in.

    If nothing else, it keeps the brain active:D

    J_S

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    Last edited: Feb 20, 2016
    #5063     Feb 20, 2016
  4. Vindago

    Vindago

    hmmm, wild guess, next couple of weeks markets goes up with short lived rally, S&P futures up to 2000, then maybe the crash starts... Just wild speculation that I will not allow to impact my trading. I am just having fun speculating about who will win the championship...
     
    #5064     Feb 21, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    VO, I am a firm believer in the here and now, and do not really believe this stuff about moon phases having an effect on collective thinking, so yes, it is just a bit of fun.

    Same goes for magical numbers and mystical levels. There is no doubt auto trading accounts for a very large amount of volume traded on ES every day, so we must accept this fact and try and see the patterns for when auto trading takes place, as they do use repetitive computer programs to trade the ES, which of course are now becoming self adaptive with the advancements in processing power and speed.

    We can never guess every move, nor do we need to, for, if we keep playing the game, taking heed of subtle changes in tactics, by chart observation and comparison, then it is possible for us to make more money than we lose, and this must be the millionth time this has been said!

    H3 is correct, in that we must never stop looking for a better way, as the tactics are continually chaging, so it stands to reason that if we do not change our approach, which is highlighted by changes in our results, then we will start to lose more than we make, and if that happens, it is time to call it a day, and accept that you have been outsmarted by the money brains.

    J_S
     
    #5065     Feb 21, 2016
  6. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    SC, the teacher has put me in the corner again, as he doesn't like Father Jack Hackett:D

    In relation to excel, yes, you are correct, and I found a very easy way to show same in excel. I searched the net for an "add in", to no avail, but after some simple thinking, the feckin answer was as obvious as the nose on my face, and it works perfect every time.

    FWIW, my 5 min chart work last night turned up something that I now need to look into, as it is not a normal 5 min chart, in that it looks back 5 minute from current minute, so chart changes as time moves on, with some interesting subtle differences to a normal fixed time chart.

    You learn something new every day, but you have to do some work of course, to learn anything of value:)

    Will keep you updated on progress over coming week.

    J_S
     
    #5066     Feb 22, 2016
  7. SkyChef

    SkyChef

    JS,

    I bought a book published recently on that method and I have scanned through it quickly before putting it away because I have no idea whether it works or not. After you sent me the link, I thought I've seen this subject before so I went back to research the method. And you know what, quite a plenty of instruments exhibits that phenomenon.

    I think I'm going to make it my weighted coin. (Hi, RN, the weighted coin, eh? :D). I have his book too but have no idea whether it works or not before I came to this forum. Reading this thread from page 1 to the end is quite a lot of work and the gem is everywhere (and I'm pretty bad at solving riddles)

    I think I'm set. Now the doing part.

    I'm giving myself 1 week to familiarizing w/ my platform, the consecutive trades to feel the difference between no fear trading & fear trading and win/loss ratio. After that, 3 months live trading, then 3 more months to fine tune and report the result to the boss on my birthday, 6 mos from now.
     
    #5067     Feb 22, 2016
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    FWIW, I would go with stocks first, blue chip, average daily range of at least 50 cent, high volume.

    As for books and methods, well, price will do what it is gona do, so, it is our interpretation that determines our outcome, and sometimes the simplest of interpretations are best.

    Low risk is key to gain experience, but will not make you money on it's own, for, unless you get good at timing, as in good entries and good exits, then chances of making anything worth talking about is very slim.

    I have traded many different ways, and many markets, and all I will say, is, if you learn how to use the concept in the link I sent you, CORRECTLY, then it will keep you on the right side of the market for when the big moves happen.

    Of course you will have losers, so what, we all do, no big deal, just keep trading and when the nice moves happen, you are in, and you will then make up for your losers, with additional profit.

    Crawl before you walk!

    J_S
     
    #5068     Feb 22, 2016
  9. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Looks like tomorrow might be an important day!

    J_S

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    Last edited: Feb 22, 2016
    #5069     Feb 22, 2016
  10. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    J_S

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    #5070     Feb 22, 2016