Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck

    I started completely over so many times - I lost count

    Became just another leg of my journey

    It is frustrating - as hell

    But necessary at times

    RN
     
    #5041     Feb 17, 2016
  2. SkyChef

    SkyChef

    My only comfort is I know someone has done it. I'm looking deep inside for motive. W/o it, there is no chance for success. At the moment, too many noises.
     
    #5042     Feb 17, 2016
  3. Redneck

    Redneck

    Follow your heart

    RN
     
    #5043     Feb 17, 2016
  4. SkyChef

    SkyChef

    Passion.

    PS: BTW, thanks for all the charts you put here & there. Since I don't know what I was looking for, I couldn't ask.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2016
    #5044     Feb 17, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    OK, I said earlier we are at a major level on SPX, so let's try and see what is going on in the big bad world of trading, as it is hard to try and follow these magicians!

    I am not drawing any lines this time, as you can use your own eyes and your own brain!

    Let's see if we can do a bit of Edgar Cayce for tomorrow:rolleyes:

    Anyone care to predict the future and make a call, or a put:D

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-17-16 at 11.00 PM.PNG

    Screen Shot 02-17-16 at 11.05 PM.PNG

    Screen Shot 02-17-16 at 11.10 PM.PNG

    The big volume spikes below are at the 1900 strike.

    Screen Shot 02-17-16 at 11.19 PM.PNG

    Screen Shot 02-17-16 at 11.28 PM.PNG
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2016
    #5045     Feb 17, 2016
  6. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Any takes on 1900 for tomorrow, or do you think it will be higher?

    The chart says it might hit the 1945, and the OI sorta backs it up to.

    There are 40K call and put (39.5K) contracts OI at 1950, so the chances of above this are slim.

    We had just over a 30 pt move today, so another day like today would bring us to the 1950.

    Hard one to call, but will be interesting to see where they actually finish it.

    Any option experts here that can decipher SPX OI for expiry with good accuracy?

    No need to predict the future, but nice to think about what might happen, and then see what actually happens, as it brings better understanding, if one can understand this stuff:rolleyes:

    I would like to know who (mm or other side) is net long/short, and how to find out?

    I could be wrong of course, way wrong, but I am gona say 1900 for tomorrow's close, and if I am wrong, well, I will learn something from this little bit of looking, and see how the next one goes!

    J_S
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2016
    #5046     Feb 17, 2016
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Interesting stuff, as now the SPX OI chart has updated, and we now have different goal posts!

    I hope I am seeing this correctly, as those little gaps could make all the difference?

    If I am reading this correctly, then we are bang on for the high on hourly chart for tomorrow!

    Of course, we will have to see what happens tomorrows volumes, but whatever happens, it will be very interesting to see where the SPX is at for tomorrows close!

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-18-16 at 12.37 AM.PNG
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2016
    #5047     Feb 17, 2016
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    What can I say, only, always check and double check:rolleyes:

    Now the damn chart has reverted, so much for a "professional" data feed:wtf:

    Let's just see what happens tomorrow and then see if anything makes sense, which I think it should.

    J_S
    Screen Shot 02-18-16 at 01.25 AM.PNG
     
    #5048     Feb 17, 2016
  9. Handle123

    Handle123

    I like it to go a bit above 1940 which give me signal to add, hedged, to already short position in Indexes Futures and liquidate Put credit spreads I put on to hedge some short profits, then price drop, but until then I wait. I think it make a Doji, a nothing day, but I am wrong 95% of my opinions, LOL. Strictly systems trader.

    Nice charts.
     
    #5049     Feb 17, 2016
  10. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I have being trying to get a handle..not you:D..on SPX OI at expiry for a bit now, but have not taken it serious enough, which I plan to do from now on.

    My opinion, is, that it is all controlled, and unless we get a black swan, those with money will hoodwink the big pension funds..who of course spend the plebs money, not their own..and thus transfer the wealth from the plebs to the few, which has been the case since History started to be written down.

    Many will think this is hogwash, but I do not, and that is all that matters to me, as my study of History for a bit, changed the way I looked at the world forever!

    We all know that Oil is controlled, and that countries are not invaded to "free" them, so, why should we think the rest of the financial world operates purely on "supply and demand".

    Anway, it does not matter one little bit what I think, all that matters is what I do, so if what I think helps me do better, then I will continue to think that way, if not, I will change the way I think, simple as that.

    Will be interesting to see where we close tomorrow!

    J_S
     
    #5050     Feb 17, 2016