Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck

    Unless I die - which will happen at some point

    Nothing changes..., nothing will change


    RN
     
    #4891     Feb 5, 2016
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Well, if I get another 30 years I will be happy with that :), and according to some I might come back as someone else, what a load of bollox, for, we are nothing more than walking trees, who will eventually rot into the ground with everything else.

    Most should remember this when trading, for, scared money will never win, and why people want to make millions is beyond me, when thousands will suffice!

    But then again, we have also covered all of that, with Montaigne, etc, and as nothing has really changed since 1580, then the odds of things changing in the near future are very slim indeed.

    I say fuck the big institutions, market makers, and all the other wheelers and dealers out there, for one now has the opportunity to..go where no man has gone before..but only if one gets ones head out of ones ass, and start doing what is required, not what some dumb fuckin idiots tell you what to do, which is nothing more than misdirection, which may be unintentional, but still has the same outcome.

    In summary, most need one good kick up the arse, and wake the fuck up, and for the umpteen time, sit the fuck back and look at what you are doing, for most of it is a load of bollox, and you really only need to master a few key things to make money, be it options, stocks, futures, or whatever other market you decide to trade.

    YOU are the fucking problem, not the DUMB fucking market!

    Now approaching a make or break level on ES..lets see what happens next?

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-05-16 at 05.51 PM.PNG

    Well there you go, and if you do not do the work, you will get screwed over, but not because of what the market is doing, but because of what YOU are not doing!

    Tight stops on ES, all I can say is WTF!!!!

    Screen Shot 02-05-16 at 05.56 PM.PNG
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2016
    #4892     Feb 5, 2016
  3. The obvious is that once you know what you need to know, making consistent money becomes rather easy.
     
    #4893     Feb 5, 2016
    fortydraws likes this.
  4. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Can you elaborate a bit more, like, how do you know what you need to know?

    I know the only thing I know is that I know nothing, so how can I know what I need to know?

    J_S
     
    #4894     Feb 5, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    There are very clear lines drawn in the sand now for ES, and if you are short above the upper line, then you might be one sorry bastard by days end.

    On the other hand, if you are long below lower line, you might be sorry for a bit, but still have a chance of a big smile of your ugly face by days end:D

    You must weigh up the risk, and change your mind if price tells you to, or, you can use options to remove the immediate risk and level it out a bit.

    It should be obvious by now, what will make you change your mind, and if you cant see it, then you need to do some serious thinking about trading!

    Btw, for those interested, the upper line was placed on chart before the price line hit, as you must be prepared in advance, for if it had broken up you might have had to act fast, but you might have also got whipsawed, as look at the TIME!

    J_S

    second order in for long ES call

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    Last edited: Feb 5, 2016
    #4895     Feb 5, 2016
  6. Simples

    Simples

    Fair enough and thank you for your sincere honesty. I believe I was a bit unclear in the first points above. They were really responses to botpro:

    I fully agree this false knowledge is not required to trade with positive P&L. However, my questions do address the flaws in botpro's post in this thread (#4808). Probably he hasn't even tried his own ideas in simulation, or else he would've spotted the illogical assumptions and incoherent arguments that was tried sold on us.

    I do find, however, that knowing what is false, helps to polish and refine that which one discovers to be true, even if just indirectly as like gaining more confidence in one's trade plan.

    I appreciate your response nonetheless, because for traders, nothing should be more important than management toward the accumulation of positive results in all aspects of life. I'm not yet convinced I need to spend time during the opening and close to manage my trades, but maybe trading will take me there eventually in some way.
     
    #4896     Feb 5, 2016
    Redneck likes this.
  7. Redneck

    Redneck

    Yes..., yet also No

    Traders are human - and subject to life (all sorts of..., who knows what kind of extraneous bullshit will pop up next)


    RN
     
    #4897     Feb 5, 2016
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Now we have new lines in the sand for ES, and it will be very interesting to see what the last hour will bring, as I have no clue?

    I see my CL call was filled at 0.20, and my second ES call at 1.75.

    J_S

    Screen Shot 02-05-16 at 07.55 PM.PNG
     
    #4898     Feb 5, 2016
  9. SkyChef

    SkyChef

    Well, after reading the whole thread I still have no clue what's the obvious is and I don't really care about it a bit as it is right now. It's just nonsense trying to find something that you have no clue of what it is. When one is not prepared to see it, one just can't see it. Period.

    But the thread is very valuable for me because in searching for the answer, I found my own obvious thingies.

    1st, I wasn't prepared at all. I know some this, some that but I really have no clue of what I should do to get what I want. Only facing #2 below, I'm starting to realize my knowledge is completely inadequate.
    2nd, due to previous circumstances, I'm pretty much aware of my own thought and my own logic so trading psychology shouldn't be a problem. Nope, it isn't it. My awareness of myself is for external encounter, not really prepared for internal counter. But I do have a good head start.

    So, now I have my own action plan, my own stuffs to program myself.
    The mantra is "Knowing what to do and do it".
    Right then, I realize the market can only do 2 things: Against me or Award me. That's a pretty good deal already. As long as I do my own diligence, set a reasonable goal, know what I suppose to do and act on it, I got a pretty good chance making it.

    Every time I plan to tiptoe in the battle field once I guess who is going to win, I always asked myself:
    1) Where is my target?
    2) Where is my stop loss w/ respect to that target? Is that negotiable (lower target or no)?
    3) Good deal? Go. No deal? No.

    Market is always around. No need to rush but if I see an opportunity and didn't act on it, well time to have good talk, mister. Or something of that nature due to emotional disturbance. Hah.

    Thanks for everything, you guys. W/o this thread, I probably couldn't see anything further than a couple inches beyond my nose. One step at a time.
     
    #4899     Feb 5, 2016
    Redneck likes this.
  10. Redneck

    Redneck

    SC

    You have questions Sir - ask

    Getting this crap is like trying to drink from a super high pressure fire hose


    You're dead on - one step at a time


    RN
     
    #4900     Feb 5, 2016
    Traderz likes this.