Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Simples

    Simples

    On wether trading is a zero sum game: If a stock starts at 10 and now is at 100, what does that tell about the distribution of winners and losers? Likewise, if a stock start at 10 and now is at 10, have there been no costs imposed overall? Some bad and illogical arguments up in the thread about this. I'm not against discussing such details, but the arguments should be high quality and the points clear.

    Gaussian vs non-gaussian: We all know price is what two parties agree to pay, price-tails can be fat, and modern exchanges implement circuit-breakers halting too drastic price-changes. Mathematical models are just that, models - not confining, or even defining, of reality.

    Trading daily TF, means I can never know when I'll be in my next trade. So bear in mind where I'm coming from - uncertainty and low frequency trades with measly funds (by choice).

    However, I see numbers here, "stretch goals", that simply look awesome. 2% compounded consistent profits per real week, what is that in a year? Optimistically, that may mean up to 200% consistent return/year. I believe getting 20% per year is awesome. Heck, if someone manages to consistently break-even, that itself is a monumental milestone needing to be reached first.

    If these numbers are realistic, I'd like to see more reasoning how it can be, including commissions, liquidity, slippage and the inevitable trading mistakes. My approach is simple and these considerations are largely inconsequental as long as I follow my trading plan and don't second guess my opinions on the market. However, the extra costs obviously may become large pitfalls for any would-be daytrader, even those who should theoretically be profitable.

    I'm admittingly a total noob in options, so maybe that's where all these returns come from? Any pointer in a helpful direction is welcome, though, I can do my own homework, or help with others', when required.

    Back to topic: The obvious is only made so by observation, study, analysis, reflection and introspection. I believe it is good to have goals, but they should be more "self evident" rather than mere wishes. Often, putting an amount of $$$ or %%% in goals is not really a good motivator for innovation alone. Rather the opposite - it detracts from doing the required work. Both reward and punishment is generally bad for creativity, not real motivators for true IN-spiration!

    The Holy Grail is YOU, Arthur!
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2016
    #4881     Feb 5, 2016
    Sprout and wrbtrader like this.
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    That is why you should use the likes of IB, or IG, not some mickey mouse broker.

    Yes, of course most here are weak minded when it comes to trading, why elses are they looking for the elusive "holy grail", which like religion, does not exist, but if grown up people want to believe in "stories", that is their own business, and no one elses.

    What was the third question, as watching ES for long call option.

    J_S
     
    #4882     Feb 5, 2016
  3. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Missed my long CL call option by 1 point, oh well, that is what happens when you can not watch when required, not to worry, as I am not trading today anyway:)

    J_S
     
    #4883     Feb 5, 2016
  4. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Not you again, now you are definitely one of those who need help from the idiots:D

    J_S
     
    #4884     Feb 5, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    ES will prob break down bit, but bought one here and may buy another?

    J_S

    Screenshot_2016-02-05-15-51-15_1.jpg
     
    #4885     Feb 5, 2016
  6. When you figure out what's likely/not likely, and where and when this occurs you'll be all set. Sounds vague but it's different for everyone
     
    #4886     Feb 5, 2016
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    SS, all the crap talk bout gusts of wind, and other rubbish posted by many, really does not matter one little bit to us shark suckers, as we are but a drop in the ocean, so why even waste time thinking bout such rubbish. Best leave that to the idiots who trade OPM!

    You will only make money by trading, note your mistakes, stop making them over and over, and reverse the process.

    RN has already repeated what I have repeated, and we will still be repeating it in 5 years time, as most will just not change, as they can not just sit back and think about what the hell they are doing wrong. You do not need any idiot to tell you that you are not doing things the best way, as your P&L tells all!

    J_S
     
    #4887     Feb 5, 2016
    dartmus and Simples like this.
  8. Redneck

    Redneck

    You Sir.., Are way too kind

    Thank You :)

    RN
     
    #4888     Feb 5, 2016
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Prefaced with - I completely do not understand the gist of your post Sir


    This is esoteric - and noise




    If you're questioning whether or not money can be made - day in.., day out - it can

    And my knowledge regarding options is rudimentary at best - I'm an outright trader

    RN
     
    #4889     Feb 5, 2016
  10. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Seems I mistook you for someone else, so my apologies.

    J_S
     
    #4890     Feb 5, 2016