Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Btw, have a look at CL on the 30 min chart, oh well, I did say I was not trading today, and when I say something I mean it, but let's just say I had a very good mind to go long CL a few minutes ago, as when I looked at the chart, it was telling me that this just well might be the time to chance a long.

    J_S
     
    #4851     Feb 5, 2016
  2. DDR

    DDR

    Yes this is true, good observation and in my case coupled with a dash of impulsiveness "oh dear" But I get your point thank's
     
    #4852     Feb 5, 2016
  3. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    No, a very simple hand drawn document, showing boxes A and B, and the criteria needed in order to move from A to B, on a daily basis.

    Of course you have to think, and I have thought so much about it, and tried it so many times, it is very simple to me, and I know exactly what I must, and must not do.

    This is how it must be, you must KNOW what is required, otherwise you are just wasting your time and money.

    J_S
     
    #4853     Feb 5, 2016
  4. DDR

    DDR

    A flow chart yes ok got it
     
    #4854     Feb 5, 2016
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    This chart, no lines or anything, just a quick look, as that is how I have to operate for now, so that is what I do!

    I use IG charts with tws charts because I like them on mobile, as IG have the best mobile charts, and as the charts mean everything, then it makes sense to use the best.

    CL is a bastard to trade outright, as they can move it suddenly with no signs of any reason why, hence, I only use options on CL, but so far so good, so gona keep doing what I am doing.

    J_S

    Screenshot_2016-02-05-12-00-54_1.jpg
     
    #4855     Feb 5, 2016
  6. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I think we are in a danger zone now, meaning we can go either way. I would bet on more up, but it would be a small size bet, with a view to a quick exit unless we get above the close of the previous candle.

    It really requires management on the smaller time frames, as you will see it changing direction there first, but as it depends on your available time, all you can do is take on the risk, and let it play out, for we can never know for sure, but we can make a good guess at it, based on repeatable patterns.

    J_S

    Screenshot_2016-02-05-12-11-55_1.jpg
     
    #4856     Feb 5, 2016
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    So far so good, as we now have identifiable levels to know when to get out, or reverse trade.

    J_S

    Screenshot_2016-02-05-12-21-56_1.jpg
     
    #4857     Feb 5, 2016
  8. OK, let me rephrase the question.

    Is the "obvious" a particular method?
     
    #4858     Feb 5, 2016
  9. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    OS, what is it with you and The Obvious:D

    Of course some ways are better than others, but knowing in itself, is of limited value, unless you are willing, and able, to apply what you know, by doing.

    So, Yes, it can be a method, and No, that does not mean you will be able to use the method effectively, for if that was the case, everyone would be millionaires in a few weeks, and we all know that just does not happen.

    J_S
     
    #4859     Feb 5, 2016
  10. DDR

    DDR

    Very hard for me to put it into this format as you described maybe I'm thick and I don't really know what you want to see instead I have my methodology on chart form as I am a visual person feel free to assist me in fully understanding your method or can you share yours. As per below opposite for long entry.
    12.png
     
    #4860     Feb 5, 2016