Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Onra

    Onra

    A little off topic, but J_Smith asked me to post a simple trade.
    So 2 shorts from AUDUSD, based on a double top and pinbar halfway the swing.
    The stops would be just above the setups.
    Schermafbeelding 2016-01-31 om 12.11.05.png
     
    #4771     Jan 31, 2016
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Thx OA, but could you post a live trade this week, something similar to what I done recently, but any market you trade.

    The reason is simple, in that only people who are actually trading can join TFF, as we are going to keep the talking about trading for here and other threads, and just post trades in TFF private thread.

    J_S
     
    #4772     Jan 31, 2016
  3. The fact that the performance of the "obvious" approach can be quantified means it must be a repeatable, measurable technique.

    If it was just a state of mind, a different way of thinking, then it wouldn't be possible to attach a % to it.

    500-1000% sounds like a very wide range of outcomes but actually, if you do the math, it's far from it when compounding several hundred discrete trades over a year.

    Just thinking out loud...

    OS

     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2016
    #4773     Feb 2, 2016
  4. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I would say it all depends on the other things NY mentioned as well, for the more things are in sync, the better the results.

    More applicable to daytrading also, I would imagine.

    I see the ES overshot my high level high probability target by 0.75, damn, I hate being wrong:rolleyes:

    J_S
     
    #4774     Feb 2, 2016
  5. It would be interesting to know how NY arrived at that 500-1000%.

    It's bold by any measure.
     
    #4775     Feb 3, 2016
  6. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    With no compounding.

    0.5 x 5 x 4 x 48 = 496 Very Good

    0.75 x 5 x 4 x 48 = 720 Brilliant

    1.0 x 5 x 4 x 48 = 960 Expert

    J_S
     
    #4776     Feb 3, 2016
    The Obvious likes this.
  7. Vindago

    Vindago

    TO, I don't think it is not achievable, all you would need to do is to make between 1% and 2% average a day. With a stock like EOG that costs about 65$ and that move about 3$ per day you would need to capture between 60c and 1,20$ average a day (ex. 25K account, 4 contracts = 240$ to 480$), not easy but not so impossible...
     
    #4777     Feb 3, 2016
    The Obvious likes this.
  8. 500-1000% is certainly something to aspire to (without getting carried away of course).
     
    #4778     Feb 3, 2016
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Before we get too big for our britches

    Head down.., remain focused on the process..., routine..., discipline.., patience

    Suss out low risk entries - manage each - to hell with the results

    ===================

    Burn this into memory....

    This is one gig - that if you focus on the results - will cut you off at the knees quicker than you can blink


    RN
     
    #4779     Feb 3, 2016
    slugar, J_Smith, onemoreshot and 3 others like this.
  10. Vindago

    Vindago

    RN, that was philosophical talking, I agree with you that the process is what matters, once this is proven to work, money will come. Though I also know that I am the first one struggling with setting and following a process... so I know that I still have a long way to go, sigh.
     
    #4780     Feb 3, 2016