Interesting point about gambling RN. Traditional gambling is often just a simple (ie. binary) bet on an uncertain and unknowable outcome, or some similarly very linear process. With any more complex / chaotic process, people wouldn't feel comfortable gambling. Instead, they do, all the while being happily fleeced by the house! Trading is a different beast. People are still fleeced though, but the experience is a more gloomy one for the unexperienced. Mathematically you could try to state that trading is a series of bets during the passage of time, ie. a growth- or log-timeseries. The problem is that the real results of trading depends on execution mechanics, gaps and boundless potential for price volatility over any kind of time period. This, as well as Murphy's Law, can at any time royally screw you over, warping anything, including yourself, in the process. Therefore such a theoretical axiom is really very misleading in practice, and can quickly lead to attaining anti-edges (ie. by information lag, inaccuracies and simple mistakes). Also, a theoretical growth formula based on unknown chaotic processes is by itself quite unhelpful, as a practical and well-defined trading process. Uncertainty means you can never truly know future results. Risk means you may accumulate losses from being on the wrong side of the market. Risk Management often means closing small losses, to survive to fight another day, as well as being able to manage larger positions safely (position sizing). So: Trading happens when YOU manage positions comfortably, between uncertainty and risk! By being the house, I assume the universe is not putting in too much effort to get you! The exit is left as an exercise to the reader.
Your understanding, is of course correct, in that no matter what you learn, or do, you can have a loser anytime, due to the simple fact that price can change direction at any time with no warning what so ever. However SS, there always is a "better" way to trade (less risk to your money), and one will not know about it, if one has never experienced it. Time = Money There has been many meanings given by posters for T=M, and, and the obvious one is being overlooked by most. We all know that risk management is a must, and taking losers is an integral part of trading, so if one is really serious about not giving away their money to others, what should one be concentrating on to increase ones odds, realizing more winners than losers, which in turn will greatly help overcome the psychological issues associated with losing money? J_S
Personally, I have no qualms about accepting more losers than winners, but that's to do with trend trading on daily timeframe. However, mathematically, more consistent winners than losers could mean less critical risk and a system that may scale more safely. Though, I do not trade such systems now, so would have to guess: 1. Timing is essential. So as not to waste unnecessary time and money in "noise" or in adverse direction. 2. Potential speed. Do everything to ensure the market should/could provide volatility in the future (high returns per time). 3. Turning point. Take advantage of turning points in the markets, because they always happen and often provide lower risk entries. Investigations into these in the desired timeframe should be helpful to anyone. This might sound exciting, but for me trading is rather boring because of the daily timeframe I'm trading Especially in today's market since I don't wanna trade bear ETFs either.
Boredom is a good sign SS For most, reading posts and putting what is read into action, are not one and the same. Years ago, I remember looking up a thread like this one, and I even copied hundreds of pages to read offline, in the hope that I could discover something that would help me make money. What transpired, was as follows. The information I read was of little value, but it did lead me to befriending 2 people in particular, which helped me understand certain aspects of trading for different markets. I made a nice bit of money, then got greedy and gave most of it back by overtrading, and not fully understanding what I was doing. It was however, a very valuable lesson, and my trading changed immediately after the big loss, as I reduced my risk to very small money and took small profits instead of going for large ones. Trading is a funny business, as a monkey can make money trading, but let a very successful and intelligent person dabble in the markets, and he/she can look like the biggest fool since Groucho Marx. J_S
I'm no expert and don't pretend to be, but following recent posts, vwap seems to show level formation, can't say that I'd thought of that as a means of showing how levels form before clarity in a chart rather in hindsight. hwb is important for algo strategy apparently. I was going to post a picture to illustrate the hwb levels but in view of the idiot post decided against. For some reason though, despite that I think I see the point, I don't feel exited. Gambling is the term most apply to the process of risking money to gain money, but some disagree and use the term to mean something else according to their own definition, its just a label though so no problem.
Allow me to preface with - I get what you're saying - no argument Just adding my slant It's also a mindset So there no expectation of / for a particular outcome So there no hesitation / second guessing - when it time to exit a trade that's broken down So there no association of self / self worth - to losing trades.., or winning trades for that matter So it frees one up to move on the the next one - without lingering affect from the last - no matter how it turned out ================ The uncertainty of a given outcome is how I relate trading to gambling The "odds" of this one..., or that one - working - I don't give a second thought to - nor care Of course trading inherently more risky - from all aspect - than gambling will ever be =============== Literally I blew my belief system & beliefs up - then rebuilt it / them - around trading btw..., I would not recommend this to the faint of heart...,weak of mind..., nor anyone lacking conviction to see it through You ain't experienced shear hell..., frustration..., and terror - till you've rebuilt yourself from the inside out Forgot to add the most important - duh If you attempt above - your spouse better be one hellofa wonderful and understanding person - they will be going through it with Ya - just not as deep RN
Here is a recent post from ET member garachen from another post. This guy knows what he's talking about. I always enjoy reading his posts. One of the few people I follow. "In my experience trading takes a very important and somewhat rare personality trait which is: the ability to see the next logical step and to then get it done. If this ability is lacking you will always be behind - like playing in the NBA if you are 5 feet tall. It's then better to spend your time elsewhere" I couldn't have said it better, and I agree 100% with this. Some people just don't have, and never develop that "outside the box" or "abstract" view
The important glass is the last one, as I know only too well, but if you get to like it, you can literally ruin your life, and the exact same goes for trading. RN has summed it up nicely, in that you must experience pain , as in large losses, before you realize that there is a big difference between the ability to make money (which a monkecy can do), and the ability to hold on to the money you make, which requires many things to be in good order, such as family circumstances, available capital, debt burden, and what ever other things can affect your way of thinking. It was not vwap, but I will look at it, as it is probably very close to what it is. Yes, it is HWB, good spot, and the reason I think is very valid. Yes, they are nothing to get excited about, as nothing is, for, you just need to take the trades at key levels, and keep doing that, regardless of the outcome, to make money trading. J_S