Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Simples

    Simples

    @J_Smith : Maybe you could invite me in about 2 weeks time, if you want and remember?
    That would be a fun exercise :D

    Thanks for the kind words and trust. Yes, for a gross environment often breaks subtle points.
     
    #4751     Jan 29, 2016
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    That is fine SS, but I am nearly as old as you, so I might forget:)

    We are in wind up mode at the moment, as all of us have other more important things to look after right now, but there will come a time when serious daytrading will be carried out on a daily basis, hopefully in the near future.

    We do not offer any advice in relation to trades, we merely post our trades for discussion, as each of us trade different markets, at different times.

    It broadens the mind, and keeps one focused on what they are doing.

    Like any real trading carried out, there are losers and winners, with the focus on keeping the losers small, and the winners bigger than the losers.

    You will bring the number to 5, so I might have to change the name from TFF to TMS:D

    There is one other pending member, who is in the process of joining the group.

    J_S
     
    #4752     Jan 29, 2016
  3. Simples

    Simples

    Ah, I'm daily TF trader for now though, and in entirely different markets (non-US). So not sure if it makes sense to focus intraday, at least I don't have the time for it now. I assumed your group was larger. Wouldn't want to lurk in a small group and not be able to contribute or have as much time.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2016
    #4753     Jan 29, 2016
  4. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    No problem SS, and if you change your mind just let me know.

    We do not trade everyday, it all depends on what time we have available, but I am trying to get some trades done everyday from now on, using options mostly, but some outright shares as well on ETF's and stocks.

    All we do is post the trades we make for discussion, and there is no pressure on anyone to post, just as long as they post some trades with a simple reason for same.

    As RN rightly said, there is more than one way to skin a cat, and our main focus is on risk control, as that is the key to consistent profits when used with common sense trading.

    You do not have to get market direction right to make money trading, but you do have to have an opinion, and change that opinion as, and when, the market tells you to do so, by using simple chart analysis, and a little few other things learned from many losing and winning experiences:)

    My motto is..

    If you want to win, you must learn to lose correctly.

    J_S
     
    #4754     Jan 30, 2016
    Simples likes this.
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I wonder if IE is still trading, or investing, as it will be interesting to see how he got on since jan 2013.

    What he failed to see back then, is that you do not have to be an expert to trade effectively, but you do need to think seriously and use common sense.

    I would say, one of the worst decisions he made was to look at charts from his friend, as his friend was more than likely using text book rubbish, which everyone knows is not the real answer, for if it was, then 95% would not continue to fail.

    Common sense really!

    J_S
     
    #4755     Jan 30, 2016
  6. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    #4756     Jan 30, 2016
    Gringo likes this.
  7. I'd like to participate. As posting my trades in the other discussion actually helped me get on with trading instead of spending time doing other things. Otherwise I'd just spend all day trying to come up with the perfect way of KNOWING EXACTLY what the market will do(which is just a waste of time), and no actual trading.

    I'm still just trading the YM as I watch it all day.

    I'm actively trading, so I hope the others are at least actively trading on a daily basis as well.
     
    #4757     Jan 30, 2016
  8. Redneck

    Redneck

    Not singling you out forrestang - rather want to drive a few points home with some random thoughts

    ==================================

    Nothing..., on the face of this earth..., can predict future human behavior (impending order flow) - with any consistency..., or accuracy - absolutely nothing

    It futile.., frustrating..., and a waste of time / effort - even trying

    And why uncertainty is our number one component of trading

    It unnecessary trying to know what the mkt will do

    It absolute must - for us..., to always maintain a clear head - and know what we will do

    =======================

    Throw in the fact - PA movement is orchestrated

    (Whoa RN - you sayin price movement is manipulated....

    No - I'm not saying it manipulated - rather orchestrated

    When you control the mechanics

    When you have enough money to affect price movement

    When you can employ techniques via price movement to throw us little ones off our game

    No need for manipulation - simply orchestrate it

    shtf events notwithstanding of course

    ================

    My point is: anything can happen..., at any time - and we will never know before hand

    Which is why we must always be clear..., and unwavering - iow..., know with absolute certainty - what we will do

    Where we will get out for a loss..., where we get out for a profit

    We must remain completely objective through it all - no matter what the mkt dishes out

    ====================

    Here's another fact

    We can do every conceivable thing correctly - and a trade ultimately breaks down

    We can do every conceivable thing bassackwards/ fucked up / full retard - and a trade ultimately works

    We can never..., ever - allow outcome's of trade to affect us

    Each trade simply works out..., as it works out - then we move on to the next one

    ====================

    Lot to get our ole noggin wrapped around

    A hellofalot to get identified..., organized..., assimilated..., and ultimately formed into an effective..., working - approach to trading

    Into our head..., so we evolve into an effective trader

    We humans possess the uncanny ability to fuck up an anvil - I know / I've done it

    ===================

    We never know..., we will never know

    We are risk managers first

    We keep every damn loss small

    We manage risk..., in all its forms..., first and foremost

    We remain objective..., patient..., and discipline

    We make a plan for each trade - then follow that plan to fruition - with absolutely no deviation

    iow..., none of this - making shit up on the fly..., or not knowing with absolute certainty what we will do - if / when a trade breaks down..., or..., if / when a trade works out

    We never allow an outcome of any trade to affect us

    We always:

    define the risk
    accept the risk
    have a systematic way of taking profit

    Before entering into each trade

    =====================

    None of us know

    Don't act like it..., don't think you do..., don't think we.., or anyone else - does

    ============

    More ways to trade than can be counted - we each have our own..., you must find yours

    ==============

    Managing self - in a totally uncertain environment

    Knowing with absolute clarity..., and unwavering certainty - what you will do next..., no matter what the mkt dishes out

    Doing it

    Then on the the next one

    ===================

    Finally (and NY and I fought like cat and dogs over this one at one time :) )

    Trading is gambling

    Trading is a hellofalot riskier than gambling could ever come close to

    We can either trade as a gambler..., or as the house


    Anyone telling you trading is not gambling - is completely ignoring uncertainty

    Anyone telling you trading is like gambling - is completely ignoring the risk

    Anyone telling you - you are a gambler (and not the house) - doesn't understand - discipline..., patience..., routine...., objectiveness..., risk management

    =================


    Just a little guru speak on this fine..., fine morning

    And possibly..., a little food for thought - from a simple minded..., dumbass..., redneck

    ;)

    RN
     
    #4758     Jan 30, 2016
  9. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    I tried to invite you FG, but was not allowed.

    Have you PM's turned off?

    J_S
     
    #4759     Jan 30, 2016
  10. Thanks. Sent message.
     
    #4760     Jan 30, 2016