Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

The first thing I would say, is that, there may be a better way to look at it.

I can see several buying opportunities here, without using any lines what so ever, but to place the trades, you must be there at the time.

Can it be automated, I am certain it can, as is that not what the auto traders do!

J_S

 

BTW, thanks NYSE, RN, JS and many others for you know who you are. You guys "show" me how to put things together. I really appreciate your sympathy for your fellow's suffering.

I'm still at page 100. 360 more to go.

 

Yes VO, you are spot on, the last pullback was there, but that is not the reason I am talking about.

In fact. the SPX is a better chart for the longer term looking, and the level here is 1946.50

This is just a high probability now, and it may get there soon, or not, but the odds now are sooner than they were last week.

It can of course bust up thru it, get very close to it, or not reach it, as we can not know for sure, but if I was a gambling man , I would now have a long bias over short, until things say otherwise.

J_S

 

JS, is it as 2040 was between mid Oct and beginning of Jan? if so I think I get it...

 

Here is the ES chart after a better look, as the other was a quick glance on mobile.

ES up target high prob level is 1939.25.

As mentioned, it may or may not, but if it happens soon we should be ready, as it will either do a reversal, or move on to next upper probability level.

J_S

 

I don't think we are looking at the same thing VO.

I have marked the previous one for ES, and it was 1949.25.

This should make it easier.

1949.25 was broken, and price advanced to next level, but 1949.25 was the key level to watch, and if price came back below it, you would not want to be long.

Also, as the 1949.25 level was now taken out to the downside, the previous analysis is now finished, and the next movements must be looked at.

We can not use the same number over and over, as price is ever changing, in the same way the auto traders place trades based on what has recently happened, not what happened months ago.

It is a very interesting concept, especially when you can apply it to any timeframe, but as usual, you must work it out, for if I say what it is, you will not remember it, and just say it was just another silly post by J_S

We must never forget that these are just highly probable levels to watch, based on what I believe is mostly due to auto traders having designed algos that kick in and out based on certain mathematical calculations using recent price movements, but might also be using not so recent ones, for I have not seen their algos, so I can not say for certain.

J_S

 

Thanks RN. I’ve been trading since the late 90s. I’ve lost money all the way until 2013 (overall negative pnl). I started following this thread in 2010 and thanks to people posting to this thread I finally figured out what I needed to know to make money. It took about another few years before I was able to make money from that. I trade mainly ES futures and futures options nowadays.

Hope I'm able to contribute a little and help out if I can. (plus learn more myself )

 

There is one major factor that might negate this analysis, and it has to do with time, as time is very important when it comes to directional analysis, after all, Gann was no fool, but I am not talking about Gann methods, I am talking about daily movements!

So, in relation to your statement VO, yes, you are right to take range into consideration, as how far price moves in a day, is of course, very important, and, how many days it takes to move a certain amount, can, be even more important.

When you look at a chart, you must not look at it as most do, for if you do, you will only see what most see!

So, with respect to time, there is a danger of a quick reversal here, but as usual, we will never know for sure, and again, we should be ready, so that if does happen we can act, and say, well yes, we had identified a high probability upside price, but time has reduced that probability by about 50%, so all we can do is wait and see, and be prepared.

Of course, I forget to mention, the smaller time frame analysis is used for shorter term trades, and these take preference over the higher time frame analysis, so, what ever way it goes, by using the smaller time frames to trade you are keeping on the right side of the market, and the higher timeframes show you what might just be around the corner, so if it happens, you are not surprised.

This is very clear to me, and if it is not clear to you, then you obviously do not think like me!

It will be interesting to see what actually happens next.

J_S

 

Hmmm, I will have to think about this as I do not see anything obvious.

I mean the only thing I see with 1939.25 (the level to watch now) is that it is the high of the fist daily pullback candle on the way down, the one on the left of the pullback high at 1949...

 

Hi CN, as per our little analysis of ES, I have decided to take the time element into consideration, and take on some risk to the downside

Will monitor this one as I might have to close it for a loss if ES does indeed move up and break that 1939.25, as it has gone close today at 1933.

Anyway, I know my max risk on the trade, which is the main thing.

J_S