Now for the bit that gets really hairy scarry What if I was to say, that, with a 95% probability, that RIG would hit $67 within a certain given timeframe. We all know that a stock price can only do 3 things - but the time that it does those 3 things can vary, as time and price are not one and the same, how can they be so, it is just not possible:eek: The big question to ask, is, how the hell can I determine where the price will be, within a certain time frame, and what are the odds of the price hitting that level? If it was so "obvious", then why didn't all the traders just buy RIG and make a killing? I know the answer to the riddle, and a few others, but as mentioned I can't say, for obvious reasons. But, some people are now starting to see that you don't actually have to know the obvious to make some money, but you do need to be able to think for yourself, and know that the majority of people out there are nothing but idiots, who all think they are "holier than thou", well, the reality of it all, is that the only person that a trader needs to "worry" about is himself/herself, and let all the silly idiots in the world look after themselves!
To finish what has transpired with my mate, the big gambler He still insists that I was lucky, and he is my mate! Even though I have explained to him, about 15 times, why I did what I did, he can just not grasp the reality of what I am telling him! Therein, lies the reality of trading, and why people think they can make money by "throwing the chips all over the table". What is the opposite of C.O.N.T.R.O.L - it is C.H.A.O.S History is a great teacher of life - read and learn what is possible, and not possible for the individual to achieve in the short time that we have to live on this planet! Holy sh*te - maybe "I" am the idiot
Thx Boib - we will try and dedicate some more time to trading, but this History is taking up a lot of my time lately
NP Boib, You see, I am firm believer in justice and fair play. I was brought up by decent parents, even though my Father was a little fond of the "drink", but at the back of it all, he was a gentleman, and every person that I have ever spoken to that knew him, confirms it to me, and that is a nice feeling to have. I loathe it when I see all the so called "experts" exploit people for money, and when you have gained enough experiences in life, so that you become "aware" of what the hell is "actually" going on, it is very easy to challenge these people and come out the better. Once a person is willing to "always" speak what is on their mind, even if it transpires that they were wrong, then there is no harm in that. That is what life is all about - learning so that one can better oneself. The big problem, is that the avenues of "learning" have been closed off, and what we end up with is a one way thought stream - some will say on purpose, which I tend to sort of agree with, but there are times when I do have my doubts, but not that often mind you! So, who knows, letâs continue and see what happens, if one person becomes a better trader with the little help I am able to give, then that is enough for me. I don't give a sh*ite about what people think of me, and I really mean that, and to be honest, a successful trader has to have that attitude, else they will feck themselves up in the head when trading, and that can be very bad for the bottom line! When I say one must look at everyone else as being "idiots", I am not being sarcastic, for the reality is that most are, and if most are idiots, then it should be "obvious" that one will not learn anything of much value from them! Maybe I could put it a little softer, but hey, I don't give a sh*ite, and if someone wantsâ to get rid of me, they can just turn on that "ignore" feature, if it is there, if not they can send me a PM and I will make sure that they are banned from the thread
Finally, I could write all night about this stuff, as it is what I enjoy doing the most. Half the battle is enjoying what you are doing! If you do not find that you are happy, then the odds are you are not enjoying it, so it may be wise to stop and re-think about what you are doing! This really is very basic stuff, yet it is overlooked by most! What do children like doing the most, even from our own memories, and from what we see around us in our family and friends?
Gambling -> obvious Find a method of making small profits with very high probability and it will give good profit. Probability has the most control of drawdowns while both probability and W/L ratio greatly affect profit. Great thread, Regards K
Hypothetical question for you nyses: Lets say you were given a magic crystal ball by someone you trusted and you had even seen its magic work with your own two eyes. You are 100% certain that what it tells you is true. This magic ball will only work for you once. This one and only time it will tell you that this one particular stock which today is at 5, will be at 100 on the last trading day of the month. Would you bet every $ you have and leverage to the max on this bet?