Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    What market/instrument have you decided to trade in order to try and make this $100 per day, and what time have you available to trade during this markets' hours?

    J_S
     
    #4311     Oct 16, 2015
  2. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    And don't forget the butter mountains and wine lakes that occured as a result of the EU Common Agrigicultural Policy of the 1980s - which was basically a rigged market for the benefit of farmers, especially the French.
    http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/common-agricultural-policy

    Nothing random about that. But at times price charts do seem to display a random walk, which I presume to be the result of a large amount of individual traders/institutions or whatever that follow their own agendas, combining to produce a random like price behaviour. Not really random, but the interactions of the multitude of deterministic processes of individual traders and algorithms are so complex that a random model fits well. At times though it seems that major players dominate price direction in a way that is clear, and it is those times when it is best to trade.
     
    #4312     Oct 17, 2015
  3. dartmus

    dartmus

    If you hadn't asked that backwards I would say $60 : $1200
     
    #4313     Oct 18, 2015
  4. I think the obvious is not so obvious because it's SO obvious and simple that it gets dismissed.
    That's my answer to the OP
     
    #4314     Oct 18, 2015
    Eddiemorra and dartmus like this.
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    It is very simple, actually!

    please check in case i am wrong!

    Step 1.


    Start = $10,000 (risk money)


    Risk = n ($100)


    Trades = 100n


    Losers = -40n


    Winners = +60n


    End = 100n -40n +60n = 120n ($12,000)



    Step 2.


    Start = $12,000


    Risk = n ($120)


    Trades = 100n


    Losers = -40n


    Winners = +60n


    End = 100n -40n +60n = 120n ($14,400)


    ==========================


    Return = 20%


    Compound Formula


    Screen Shot 10-18-15 at 07.25 PM.PNG


    P = $10,000

    R = 20 %

    W = 10 periods




    Result N = 10,000 (1+20/100)power10


    = 10,000 (6.191...)

    = $61,910


    Gain = 61,910 - 10,000 = 51,910


    Errors = 20%


    Adjustment = 51,910 – 10,382 =


    Net Gain = $41,528


    ROI = 415 %
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2015
    #4315     Oct 18, 2015
  6. Pelt

    Pelt

    Also, is it possible that you can KNOW what the obvious is, but not understand how to take advantage of it?

    I asked this question a while back... Any input?
     
    #4316     Oct 20, 2015
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Yes
     
    #4317     Oct 20, 2015
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    10,000 risk capital

    100 max risk per bet..100 max gain per bet

    55 wins
    45 losses

    55 - 45 = 10%

    Result N = 10,000 (1+10/100)power10

    = 10,000 (2.59...) = 25,900

    10 period gain = 15,900
    5 period gain = 6,105
    2 period gain = 2,100

    once u do the math u can change everything around to suit ur circumstances..the math does not lie..55/45 would be considered a very bad "system"..lol
     
    #4318     Oct 20, 2015
  9. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    Hello J_Smith,

    What does TST mean?
     
    #4319     Oct 24, 2015
  10. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    DT, as follows.

    T = Trend (identify)
    S = Signal (wait)
    T = Timing (act)

    Think about it - you must first identify a trend (T), then, once identified you must then wait for a signal (S), and, once signaled you must then look for the best (least risky) time (T) to enter, and act!

    I don't know about anyone else, but this makes perfect sense to me.

    Have a look at what Gann said many years ago - I am not suggesting that you have to go learning all about Gann and his methods (drawing angles on a chart to identify entry and exit levels), but what I am saying is that most of what he said makes perfect sense!

    Look at the first line in this extract - Time = Money!

    J_S

    Screen Shot 10-26-15 at 07.04 PM.PNG
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2015
    #4320     Oct 26, 2015