Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Ed48

    Ed48

    So, how do you get trade entry right from the start?
     
    #4101     Sep 25, 2015
  2. Vindago

    Vindago

    LEVELS...
     
    #4102     Sep 25, 2015
  3. Ed48

    Ed48

    Ignoring how you set the levels for the moment...

    So, you draw a line on a chart. Let's say price is falling and it crosses the line. I imagine your reaction is one of the following:

    1) You expect a reversal, so you immediately go Long.
    2) Or, you expect a reversal but wait for confirmation (maybe going back above the line) before going Long.
    3) Or, you expect a continuation of the move, so you go Short.

    And do you find that this gives you a consistent high percentage of right entries, and makes GOOD money?
     
    #4103     Sep 25, 2015
  4. Redneck

    Redneck

    Redneck said:
    And the obvious is - positive expectancy - why all the subterfuge


    Bullshit statement on my part - uncertainty rules all


    RN
     
    #4104     Sep 25, 2015
  5. Vindago

    Vindago

    [​IMG]
     
    #4105     Sep 25, 2015
  6. theobviousissofrigginobvious...... you can't buy unless you know what is definitely low and you can't sell unless you know what is definitely high
    just as nyse said, the market can always go lower or higher... but if you know what is low, then the market can only go lower than what is already low.... and it is just a question of capital management
    however if you are not sure if the market is low, then when the market goes lower you can't manage risk because you don't know what is low.... for all you know the market may still be high
    so how does one determine what is low or high ? that is the secret and that is what only 3 or 4 of us knights templar are privileged enough to know. however anything that is a good secret is most likely very obvious as well.
    the best place to hide something is to not hide it at all and to make people believe that it is hidden.
    knights templar !!!
    (oh what the heck... the secret is to get the best 20 or 30 indicators and line them up on top of each other and when they all agree, you are in the know (and make sure you have a wide screen so that price itself is flattened to an almost imperceptible blip) )

     
    #4106     Sep 25, 2015
  7. pauk

    pauk

    The obvious is you only buy when it is almost certain that price will soon go higher.
    How do you know, though? Those of use 'in the know' Can't give that away
     
    #4107     Sep 25, 2015
  8. Ed48

    Ed48

    No sweat RN. It was 6½ years ago after all.

    The market may be largely uncertain but not totally uncertain, otherwise everyone would be trading random. Although, having said that, many of us are probably trading worse than random! :D
     
    #4108     Sep 25, 2015
    Eddiemorra likes this.
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Uncertainty - is not the same as random (nor even close)

    The two are completely different

    RN
     
    #4109     Sep 25, 2015
  10. Ed48

    Ed48

    I think there are plenty of clues to that in this thread. ;)
     
    #4110     Sep 25, 2015