Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Ed48

    Ed48

    Thanks for dropping in RN. I've found your posts very thought provoking, which is why I highlighted them in the PDF I provided a link to earlier.

    Was this the relation you were hinting at in the post below?

    90% lose - BLASH/SHABL
    10% win - BHASH/SLABL

     
    #4041     Sep 4, 2015
  2. Redneck

    Redneck

    Hey ED48

    90% lose - BLASH/SHABL
    10% win - BHASH/SLABL


    This has to do with the mkt's environment - and trading it accordingly

    ==========================

    90% lose, 10% win - consistently

    This has to do with who actually puts in the work to become successful


    =====================

    Outside looking in - trading comes off as one easy gig - everyone thinks they can

    Step in the nut house - only those who come to terms with their self end up making it


    Coming to terms takes work


    :)

    RN
     
    #4042     Sep 4, 2015
    Ed48 likes this.
  3. Redneck

    Redneck

    Then figure out why you can't - and change it


    As one of my esteemed colleges posted not too long ago (paraphrasing)

    Life is a series of journey's - sometimes singularly..., sometime in multiples

    Enjoy each - for at the end - that is all there is



    You're Very Welcome Sir

    RN
     
    #4043     Sep 4, 2015
  4. Read ScoobyStoo's posts, and the OP's replies, in your PDF.

    I will give you another clue. Those in the know gave much more away in their early posts when they weren't so cagey.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015
    #4044     Sep 5, 2015
    Ed48 likes this.
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    You could be right there :)

    The biggest problem for most, I think, is the fear of losing money. There is an enormous difference watching prices live on a screen, and watching your P&L change - there should not be, but there is, for all but a few.

    A four year old child can make money trading, as all you have to do is draw some straight lines on a chart and tell him to buy if the price goes above the top line, and sell if the price goes below the bottom line.

    But, how do you make sure the child will do what he is told.

    Simple, you tell him that if the price comes back over the line, and he doesn't get out fast, then he will have no money for sweets in the shop :)

    Simplified a small bit, but not much, but he will learn quickly that he can get back in even after getting out, so he can still buy some sweets!

    J_S
     
    #4045     Sep 5, 2015
    Ed48 likes this.
  6. Ed48

    Ed48

    #4046     Sep 9, 2015
    K-Rock likes this.
  7. Vindago

    Vindago

    Hi ED, I think the point is in the way price move, if you can intercept a measured move once it has started you are likely to see the price to keep moving that direction for some time. in a way it is safer to BHASH since the move has already started while to BLASH you need to bet that the price will turn around and start moving the opposite way.

    The OPs in the Obvious thread often referenced buying a bit when price stops betting that it woud turn around and then once the move was confirmed buy more...

    I guess the problem now is how do you figure out if price has started a measured move or instead is a fake move...
     
    #4047     Sep 9, 2015
  8. nysestocks are you still around ? pm please
     
    #4048     Sep 10, 2015
  9. Ed48

    Ed48

    Hi VO,

    There's an old saying "price is never too high to buy and never too low to sell"

    Of course, the more extended the move already the more uncomfortable it will feel to open a BHASH or SLABL trade. That's why the majority of traders don't do it.

    The price may immediately reverse or the move may continue for a bit longer or even quite a lot longer. There's no way of knowing, and that's the nature of gambling.

    Ed
     
    #4049     Sep 10, 2015
  10. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    E48, I believe that is true to an extent, but what is also true is "some times are better to buy than others, and some times are better to sell than others" - not it is "sometimes" better, as there is a big difference!

    So, we now have another question to ponder on besides buying or selling high or low, and that is "when" do I buy, or "when" do I sell?

    Time = Money for a valid reason!

    Why are Swiss timepieces known for their accuracy?

    J_S
     
    #4050     Sep 10, 2015
    lawrence-lugar likes this.