Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    It may help some to understand how their brain actually developed - I now see why some people are called "dick heads":D

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    #381     Apr 3, 2009
  2. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    Back to business!

    In order to come up with "N", lets pick a stock and see what happens?

    Pick any US stock that is worth trading - lets say with an ADV of about 5 Ml shares, or greater.

    Price must be at least $10 and not exceed $80

    It does not matter what sector it is in!

    They first step is to pick an entry point - so after someone posts the ticker with the correct requirements- as we do not need to know the name of the stock:D - those who want to partake can start posting their entry levels and stop levels - and if you have enough money you can place an AON bet if you are brave enough!

    Forget about the exit for now - the whole focus is on entry and how much we are willing to lose to another trader.

    Lets see who can lose the least amount of money:D
     
    #382     Apr 3, 2009
  3. normal distribution? negative feedback? is it math related? nit picky? non random? can I buy a vowel? if I can't guess do I have to send my profits back to my broker?

    if the first word is "not" you are cheating!
     
    #383     Apr 3, 2009
  4. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    We must use "Caution", as all is never what it seems - read the last few lines a few times!!

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    #384     Apr 3, 2009
  5. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    Tell you what milktruck, we will give you first preference to pick the US stock, how about that!

    BTW, it is not not:D
     
    #385     Apr 3, 2009
  6. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    And last but not least!

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    #386     Apr 3, 2009
  7. nysestocks, now that you've opened this can of worms, more of my opinion as to why the obvious is not always so obvious :eek:

    I would define "trading correctly" as executing a trading plan or methodology that is more likely than not to be profitable in accordance with its elements/rules. So I see two components: having a valid concept and executing it properly.

    The possibilities are:

    - executing a valid concept properly
    - executing a valid concept improperly
    - executing an invalid concept properly
    - executing an invalid concept improperly

    Problem is that the market might positively or negatively reinforce any of these.

    So using your financial trade to illustrate, I'd say you may or may not have traded correctly even though you made a profit. If your rationale for the trade was valid (why you made $) and you executed your trade as planned, yes. But if you bought BAC because when you pulled up the chart, a BAC commercial aired on TV and you thought that was a sign from God, no. A cousin of this would be if you bought your stock for seemingly valid reasons but it increased for other reasons, in which case I'd also say you did not trade correctly.

     
    #387     Apr 3, 2009
  8. I'd say you're far from a "dumbass Redneck" LOL.

    The only thing I'd add is that trading may not be scary for YOU anymore... this may depend on personality types... but for ME my best trades have almost always been the scariest to "pull the trigger" on. Personally at least, experience hasn't diminished the scary feeling but what is has done is give me the discipline to pull that trigger no matter what... even if it feels like I'm about to be hit by a freight train :p
     
    #388     Apr 3, 2009
  9. fftk

    fftk


    Chutes and Ladders might be a better analogy...
     
    #389     Apr 3, 2009
  10. neutral?
     
    #390     Apr 3, 2009