Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. The short coming is that they have more money than everyone else. So they have to find buyers when they are selling and they have to find sellers when they are buying. Eventually the rest of the market runs out of enough liquidity to feed them. They are slow.
     
    #3651     Nov 9, 2013
  2. Stepping up.
     
    #3652     Nov 9, 2013
  3. bogan22

    bogan22

    Don't know either, but, he/she used to go a bit gannish every now and then. There were a couple of good calls made, with probability and date targets.

    Regards
    Bogan22
     
    #3653     Nov 9, 2013
  4. Not quite.

    I know BEFORE the time you are speaking of.

    Just before the Present there is a time slightly to the right on the charts of the Present.

    That is where I finalize, what in a brief while, will be happening in the Present.

    The market zigs and zags. My view of these is that each makes money, hence the full market offer. In our trading room we fillin these turns at a price value that is known before the Present occurs.

    Thses price values have a name. In CW terms it is called obs....... something or other. In my market language is it called a WALL on the DOM.

    Why it appears is because smartbigmoney has not gained the insight to know that too many limit orders on a given value means that NOT ALL OF THEM CAN BE PROCESSED.

    Several games are played on the DOM. They are all sophomoric and unsophisticated. It is what happens when people think they are smarter than they are. They fit on the smart scale past the middle and they do not know what the far right side looks like.

    For me, I have been tested and I am located to the right of the smart money.

    So I can see the system of the market's operation. Because of this, I use leading indicators of price always. You use lagging indicators unfortunately.

    I use 10 to 12 leading indicators of price. I invented several so they are not common to CW type people.

    In the early days of Wikipedia I was the one who announced the new post PC defaults for the popular indicators. Today mediocrasy has returned to Wikipedia since it is democratic and such. Dummies and liberal artists prevail.

    There are many many slow learners in ET.

    What if you were a thinker?

    What if you could look at a market and see anything?

    It takes a real big jump in thinking to see that the market is finite and has very few parts.


    As a warmup drill, consider a trend. It has three parts. Two of them are ends.


    Image you are innersky. He is amazed that there are 35 End Effects of trends.

    Image you are A. Lo at MIT. If you were you would look at extremes of trends and name them, find out they do not occur often and then find out they do not make any money when you use them your way. And you testify before Congress and they believe you. What a joke on Congress.

    Once I testified before a Congressional committee on the efficiency of atomic power plants. They didn't believe me. They will someday, however.

    I maintain an "unbelievable" status in most environments. This keeps most people out of my personal environment.

    Attached is a chart. It shows some stuff I am writing up. Look at the superimposed boxes with medium borders. They show the reversal zones. The arrows, red for short and black for long, are reversals.

    You said you do entry and exit and sit on the sidelines. I go in on open and do holds for the full offer and do reversals on each profit segment.

    as you see in the illustration this is all unbelievable.
     
    #3654     Nov 9, 2013
  5. In my prior post the chart was a little squished. stretch it vertically so the stuff is easier to see.

    Here was the final exam.

    Tell me when the boxes stopped appearing on the turns (turns which were not taken to make money).

    Sometimes making money is too troublesome. so I sit on the side lines.

    I use all my capital to trade. (94%). this is risk free when a person know he knows the system of operation of the markets.

    Hopefully you now know there IS a system of operation of the markets and you know you do NOT know it at all. See innersky who says he does not know it either on the record for all to see.

    You can retake the final. Just post the bar number of the last trade to exit to the sidelines. to get the answer fastest, use a print and a crayola. Fill in the clear boxes and see where you can stop filling in boxes with a crayola. This is called a drill. Drills are what builds long term memory.

    The first drill for learning trading is to draw a different bar 50 times on fifty sheets of paper. A. Lo should ask one of his doctoral students to write a thesis on a bar. Shortcut Q for barineacs: How many square matricies are required to do the drill econometrically?
     
    #3655     Nov 9, 2013
  6. Jack, I don't mean this offensively or as a challenge, but are you a profitable trader? Do you make money month after month?
     
    #3656     Nov 9, 2013
  7. I believe he defines "taking the full market offer" as capturing all the swing high->low and vice-versa on a 1-min time frame. It's not so much that he knows what to do at each moment, but letting the market tell him exactly what to do. Then again, I think JH is omniscient and is 1 with the market... :p

    More likely, you'll need to make 1 change per iteration before you actually know why things aren't working in that particular instance. Proper testing method - slow yet deliberate: Take a baseline, test, change 1 thing, test again, compare results, understand the effects of the change, and create a new baseline.

    Lather, rinse, repeat as often as necessary.
     
    #3657     Nov 9, 2013
  8. J Ski

    J Ski

    Last few months have extracted a lot out of me. The trip has been a humbling experience. Thanks for posting this., since it is helping to get my mind focused on more positive outlook.
     
    #3658     Nov 10, 2013
  9. Any trader lacks one of two things or both: knowledge or capital.
     
    #3659     Nov 10, 2013
  10. Believe it or not, it's possible to be successful and knowledgeable.

    I asked Jack the question because he posts a lot, and has a group of people who follow his every word. I'm just wondering if any of them has stopped to ask him if he is profitable before they spend their time trying to decode his cryptic messages. If he isn't profitable, then I'm not interested in wasting my time on it.
     
    #3660     Nov 10, 2013